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<p>Among the many pathways through which human activity can shape biodiversity patterns, modification of biotic interactions tends to be overlooked. Here we show how interacting anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors drive the continental-scale expansion of a highly adaptive mesocarnivore, the golden jackal. Using a dataset of playback surveys conducted across Europe, we find that the presence of an apex predator, the grey wolf, is the primary factor limiting jackal occurrence. However, a human presence acts as a shield that considerably reduces the strength of wolf suppression and provides jackals refuge near people. Our fitted distribution model predicts that jackals have the potential to expand until they occupy 75% of the continent, almost six times larger than their current range. The ongoing recovery of wolves in Europe could reduce suitable areas for expanding jackals by up to 18% in the near future, but a persistent human-shield effect, coupled with climate warming and landscape modification, is expected to sustain continued jackal expansion across the continent. Our results illustrate how cascading anthropogenic impacts can hamper the ecological benefits provided by apex predator recovery.</p>

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Human shielding from wolves facilitates jackal expansion across Europe

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Nathan Ranc,
  • Christopher C. Wilmers,
  • Luigi Maiorano,
  • David I. Warton,
  • Francisco Álvares,
  • Francesca Cagnacci,
  • Jennifer Hatlauf,
  • Ilya Acosta-Pankov,
  • Ovidiu Banea,
  • Tomaž Berce,
  • Jaroslav Červinka,
  • Duško Ćirović,
  • Nada Ćosić,
  • László Gál,
  • Giorgos Giannatos,
  • Nuno F. Guimarães,
  • Miklós Heltai,
  • Gjorge Ivanov,
  • József Lanszki,
  • Luca Lapini,
  • Peep Männil,
  • Dime Melovski,
  • Despina Migli,
  • Marco Pavanello,
  • Aleksandra Penezić,
  • Anelia Petrova,
  • Martin Šálek,
  • Alexandra Sallay-Mosoi,
  • Ivana Selanec,
  • Aldin Selimovic,
  • Tobia Sforna,
  • Aleksandar Stojanov,
  • László Szabó,
  • Jasna Tarman,
  • Igor Trbojević,
  • Tijana Trbojević,
  • Peter Urban,
  • Miha Krofel

摘要

Among the many pathways through which human activity can shape biodiversity patterns, modification of biotic interactions tends to be overlooked. Here we show how interacting anthropogenic, biotic and abiotic factors drive the continental-scale expansion of a highly adaptive mesocarnivore, the golden jackal. Using a dataset of playback surveys conducted across Europe, we find that the presence of an apex predator, the grey wolf, is the primary factor limiting jackal occurrence. However, a human presence acts as a shield that considerably reduces the strength of wolf suppression and provides jackals refuge near people. Our fitted distribution model predicts that jackals have the potential to expand until they occupy 75% of the continent, almost six times larger than their current range. The ongoing recovery of wolves in Europe could reduce suitable areas for expanding jackals by up to 18% in the near future, but a persistent human-shield effect, coupled with climate warming and landscape modification, is expected to sustain continued jackal expansion across the continent. Our results illustrate how cascading anthropogenic impacts can hamper the ecological benefits provided by apex predator recovery.