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<p>Emerging evidence demonstrates a positive relationship between heat exposure and child maltreatment. However, mechanisms remain unclear and evidence from Africa is limited, where children face high risks from both ambient temperature and trauma. Using data from 114,051 children and adolescents across 8 sub-Saharan African countries, we identified a nonlinear, J-shaped relationship between ambient temperature and child maltreatment, with minimum risk at the 27th temperature percentile. At the 95th temperature percentile, the odds ratio for any abuse was 1.50 (95% confidence interval 1.35–1.67), with stronger effects for psychological than for physical abuse. Effect modification was significant for low maternal education, maternal acceptance of physical punishment, female-headed households, rural residence, lack of air conditioning and absence of social support. Mediation analysis suggested that occupational heat exposure among working adolescents was associated with 18.8% of the estimated indirect pathway, and household water shortage with 7.1%. These findings underscore the need to integrate child protection into climate adaptation planning.</p>

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Social inequalities mediate temperature–child maltreatment associations in Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月15日

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  • Cheng He,
  • Wafaie W. Fawzi

摘要

Emerging evidence demonstrates a positive relationship between heat exposure and child maltreatment. However, mechanisms remain unclear and evidence from Africa is limited, where children face high risks from both ambient temperature and trauma. Using data from 114,051 children and adolescents across 8 sub-Saharan African countries, we identified a nonlinear, J-shaped relationship between ambient temperature and child maltreatment, with minimum risk at the 27th temperature percentile. At the 95th temperature percentile, the odds ratio for any abuse was 1.50 (95% confidence interval 1.35–1.67), with stronger effects for psychological than for physical abuse. Effect modification was significant for low maternal education, maternal acceptance of physical punishment, female-headed households, rural residence, lack of air conditioning and absence of social support. Mediation analysis suggested that occupational heat exposure among working adolescents was associated with 18.8% of the estimated indirect pathway, and household water shortage with 7.1%. These findings underscore the need to integrate child protection into climate adaptation planning.