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<p>The extent of ice-free land across Antarctica will increase in a warming world, driven by ice sheet retreat and sea-level change. Here we project an up to ~120,000 km<sup>2</sup> (~550%) increase in the extent of Antarctic ice-free land over the next three centuries, using a state-of-the-art sea level model combined with ice sheet melt predictions for a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. New ice-free land is projected to emerge in all regions with existing territorial claims as well as in the unclaimed sector in West Antarctica. The geologic setting and distribution of known mineral occurrences indicate that ice-free land emergence will expose new mineral deposits in these regions. With the likely rise in the economic viability of Antarctic mineral resources over the coming centuries, the environmental impacts of mineral resource extraction activities will be weighed against societal pressure for sustainable resource development.</p>

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Emergence of Antarctic mineral resources in a warming world

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月20日

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  • Erica M. Lucas,
  • Fred D. Richards,
  • Gabriel Cederberg,
  • Xiyuan Bao,
  • Mark J. Hoggard,
  • Stephen R. J. Tsuji,
  • Konstantin Latychev,
  • Leonard J. S. Tsuji,
  • Jerry X. Mitrovica

摘要

The extent of ice-free land across Antarctica will increase in a warming world, driven by ice sheet retreat and sea-level change. Here we project an up to ~120,000 km2 (~550%) increase in the extent of Antarctic ice-free land over the next three centuries, using a state-of-the-art sea level model combined with ice sheet melt predictions for a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. New ice-free land is projected to emerge in all regions with existing territorial claims as well as in the unclaimed sector in West Antarctica. The geologic setting and distribution of known mineral occurrences indicate that ice-free land emergence will expose new mineral deposits in these regions. With the likely rise in the economic viability of Antarctic mineral resources over the coming centuries, the environmental impacts of mineral resource extraction activities will be weighed against societal pressure for sustainable resource development.