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<p>The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (<i>S</i><sub>T</sub>) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF <i>S</i><sub>T</sub> may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF <i>S</i><sub>T</sub>. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF <i>S</i><sub>T</sub> is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF <i>S</i><sub>T</sub> across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions.</p>

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Enhanced effect of warming on the leaf-onset date of boreal deciduous broadleaf forest

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

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  • Wenyu Li,
  • Hui Lu,
  • Jing M. Chen,
  • Shilong Piao,
  • Trevor F. Keenan,
  • Guofang Miao,
  • Qiang Liu,
  • Zhou Zang,
  • Nan Xu,
  • Jane Liu,
  • Qu Cheng,
  • Han Wang,
  • Rong Wang,
  • Wenjie Ji,
  • Peng Zhu,
  • Congcong Li,
  • Qinchuan Xin,
  • Peng Gong

摘要

The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (ST) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF ST may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF ST. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF ST is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF ST across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions.