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<p>The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.</p>

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A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月10日

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  • Emanuele Bevacqua,
  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,
  • Jakob Zscheischler

摘要

The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.