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<p>Water, food, and ecology are closely interconnected and are essential for regional development and human well-being, forming the water-food-ecology (WFE) nexus. However, knowledge about progress towards sustainable development of the WFE nexus at the basin scale remains largely unavailable. This study constructed an evaluation system to assess the WFE nexus in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The spatio-temporal dynamics of WFE nexus coupling coordination were revealed using coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Then, the random forest algorithm was employed to identify key factors dominating the evolutionary patterns of CCD. The results showed that the water subsystem index decreased 4.55%, accompanied by growing spatial imbalance. In contrast, the food and ecology subsystem indices increased 45.45% and 33.33%, respectively, with reduced spatial imbalance. Besides, the mean coupling coordination level of WFE nexus improved from intermediate discoordination (CCD = 0.36) to basic coordination (CCD = 0.405), while the proportion of area reaching coordination increased from 36.34% to 51.66%. A cluster of high coupling coordination was maintained in the relatively more developed northeastern sub-basins of the LVB. In addition, social influencing factors dominated CCD across the basin, with agricultural water use efficiency and land-use intensity consistently ranking higher in importance than climate and vegetation variables, highlighting the closer association between human activities and WFE nexus coupling coordination. This study provided a feasible evaluation framework and improved understanding of the WFE nexus in great lake basins.</p>

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Agricultural water use efficiency and land-use intensity dominate the water-food-ecology nexus coupling coordination in the Lake Victoria Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月27日

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  • Tengwen Wang,
  • Jiayao Shu,
  • Maurice Mugabowindekwe,
  • Yifan Lin,
  • Danfei Zhong,
  • Jiansheng Wu,
  • Gaspard Rwanyiziri,
  • Jian Peng

摘要

Water, food, and ecology are closely interconnected and are essential for regional development and human well-being, forming the water-food-ecology (WFE) nexus. However, knowledge about progress towards sustainable development of the WFE nexus at the basin scale remains largely unavailable. This study constructed an evaluation system to assess the WFE nexus in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The spatio-temporal dynamics of WFE nexus coupling coordination were revealed using coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Then, the random forest algorithm was employed to identify key factors dominating the evolutionary patterns of CCD. The results showed that the water subsystem index decreased 4.55%, accompanied by growing spatial imbalance. In contrast, the food and ecology subsystem indices increased 45.45% and 33.33%, respectively, with reduced spatial imbalance. Besides, the mean coupling coordination level of WFE nexus improved from intermediate discoordination (CCD = 0.36) to basic coordination (CCD = 0.405), while the proportion of area reaching coordination increased from 36.34% to 51.66%. A cluster of high coupling coordination was maintained in the relatively more developed northeastern sub-basins of the LVB. In addition, social influencing factors dominated CCD across the basin, with agricultural water use efficiency and land-use intensity consistently ranking higher in importance than climate and vegetation variables, highlighting the closer association between human activities and WFE nexus coupling coordination. This study provided a feasible evaluation framework and improved understanding of the WFE nexus in great lake basins.