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<p>The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with an increased risk of myocarditis. However, COVID-19 infection is also associated with complications. A Bayesian network (BN), informed by Australian and international data, was created to determine individual risks and benefits of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric. The risk of myocarditis between vaccine-associated, COVID-19 and background rates was compared, as well as secondary outcomes such as hospitalization, and MIS-C. At a population level, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and MIS-C cases prevented at differing transmission rates and vaccine coverage were analyzed. The model estimated that teenage males were 4.47 times more likely to develop myocarditis from COVID-19 compared to the vaccine. Furthermore, the risk of hospitalizations and MIS-C were more likely in the unvaccinated cohort for all ages. The population level benefits of COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine at mitigating myocarditis are more nuanced, contingent on age, transmission rates and vaccination coverage.</p>

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A Bayesian network analysis of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric population

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月29日

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  • Tej Shukla,
  • Helen J. Mayfield,
  • John C. B. Litt,
  • Samuel J. Brown,
  • Jane Sinclair,
  • Sophie Wen,
  • Philip N. Britton,
  • Rajesh Puranik,
  • Kirsty R. Short,
  • Tina Moghaddam,
  • Olivia Williams,
  • Colleen L. Lau,
  • Amalie Dyda

摘要

The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with an increased risk of myocarditis. However, COVID-19 infection is also associated with complications. A Bayesian network (BN), informed by Australian and international data, was created to determine individual risks and benefits of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric. The risk of myocarditis between vaccine-associated, COVID-19 and background rates was compared, as well as secondary outcomes such as hospitalization, and MIS-C. At a population level, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and MIS-C cases prevented at differing transmission rates and vaccine coverage were analyzed. The model estimated that teenage males were 4.47 times more likely to develop myocarditis from COVID-19 compared to the vaccine. Furthermore, the risk of hospitalizations and MIS-C were more likely in the unvaccinated cohort for all ages. The population level benefits of COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine at mitigating myocarditis are more nuanced, contingent on age, transmission rates and vaccination coverage.