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<p>Intense surface melt and subsequent meltwater ponding are the key triggers for the disintegration of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Although a long-term decline in AP surface melt has been evident since the early 1990s, episodes of intense surface melt events have frequently been reported in recent years. Here, using 1979-2023 daily surface melt rates from regional climate models, we show that this declining trend has reversed, with November–February surface melt increasing significantly by 3% year<sup>−1</sup> (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) between 2009 and 2022. Decomposition of trends based on circulation classification indicates that changes in the frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns cannot account for this enhancement. Instead, the thermodynamics—linked to variations in the surface energy budget independent of atmospheric circulation contribute 80% of the positive trend in AP surface melt. Analysis of extreme surface melt events further supports the dominant thermodynamic contribution.</p>

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The recent enhancement of the surface melt over the Antarctic Peninsula dictated by thermodynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月4日

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  • Qinglin Zhang,
  • Baojuan Huai,
  • Sai Wang,
  • Brice Noël,
  • Michiel R. van den Broeke,
  • Xavier Fettweis,
  • Christoph Kittel,
  • Dahe Qin,
  • Minghu Ding

摘要

Intense surface melt and subsequent meltwater ponding are the key triggers for the disintegration of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Although a long-term decline in AP surface melt has been evident since the early 1990s, episodes of intense surface melt events have frequently been reported in recent years. Here, using 1979-2023 daily surface melt rates from regional climate models, we show that this declining trend has reversed, with November–February surface melt increasing significantly by 3% year−1 (p < 0.05) between 2009 and 2022. Decomposition of trends based on circulation classification indicates that changes in the frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns cannot account for this enhancement. Instead, the thermodynamics—linked to variations in the surface energy budget independent of atmospheric circulation contribute 80% of the positive trend in AP surface melt. Analysis of extreme surface melt events further supports the dominant thermodynamic contribution.