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<p>Flooding is typically perceived as a sudden and unpredictable hazard. Here, we show that recurrent flooding can occur at highly predictable times in tidally dominated coastal systems. This predictability stems from phase-locking of tidal constituents and constituent pairs with the solar day, causing peak tides to recur at consistent local times set by regional tidal propagation. Using tide-gauge records from the United States and the United Kingdom, we quantify the intraday timing of coastal flood events and show strong clustering at specific hours, particularly where semidiurnal or mixed tides dominate. For example, floods in Boston cluster around noon and midnight, whereas in southern California they occur in the morning. Sites with stronger non-tidal variability show weaker clustering. This temporal predictability extends beyond nuisance flooding to larger consequential events involving inundation, road closures and infrastructural damage, highlighting opportunities for anticipatory risk communication, emergency planning and time-sensitive coastal adaptation.</p>

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Coastal flooding at predictable hours

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月28日

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  • Joris G. W. Beemster,
  • Stefan A. Talke,
  • Ivan D. Haigh,
  • Ben S. Hague,
  • Grace C. Levins,
  • Dirk S. van Maren,
  • Antonius J. F. Hoitink

摘要

Flooding is typically perceived as a sudden and unpredictable hazard. Here, we show that recurrent flooding can occur at highly predictable times in tidally dominated coastal systems. This predictability stems from phase-locking of tidal constituents and constituent pairs with the solar day, causing peak tides to recur at consistent local times set by regional tidal propagation. Using tide-gauge records from the United States and the United Kingdom, we quantify the intraday timing of coastal flood events and show strong clustering at specific hours, particularly where semidiurnal or mixed tides dominate. For example, floods in Boston cluster around noon and midnight, whereas in southern California they occur in the morning. Sites with stronger non-tidal variability show weaker clustering. This temporal predictability extends beyond nuisance flooding to larger consequential events involving inundation, road closures and infrastructural damage, highlighting opportunities for anticipatory risk communication, emergency planning and time-sensitive coastal adaptation.