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<p>The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 m of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, we explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are met.</p>

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Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

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  • M. D. Palmer,
  • J. Savage,
  • P. D. Bates,
  • J. Neal

摘要

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 m of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, we explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are met.