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<p>Climate warming is accelerating abrupt permafrost thaw, driving substantial carbon emissions. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) represent the most severe instance of abrupt permafrost thaw, yet their carbon emissions remain poorly quantified due to limited observations. Here, by synthesizing 4728 RTS incidents and 1862 in-situ CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> measurements from RTS-affected zones across the Tibetan Plateau, we estimate that the area of RTS susceptibility will expand by 17–19% by 2100 relative to 2022, driven primarily by precipitation changes. Compared to control areas, the ecosystem respiration rate in collapsed areas decreases by 14.4%, while CH<sub>4</sub> release rate increases by 20.0%. The combined CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> release associated with RTS expansion increased 1.1-fold between 2016 and 2022. Under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenario, carbon emissions from RTS-susceptible areas are projected to surge 2.7-fold by 2100. These findings highlight that abrupt thaw strengthens permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude regions, underscoring the urgent need for targeted permafrost protection strategies to achieve carbon neutrality goals.</p>

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Abrupt permafrost thaw drives exceptional carbon release across the Tibetan Plateau

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月27日

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  • Yunjie Jia,
  • Chunling Zhang,
  • Mei Mu,
  • Xinlong Du,
  • Jinyue Song,
  • Yuguo Wei,
  • Yongqi Ge,
  • Kun Li,
  • Hebin Liu,
  • Pengsi Lei,
  • Xiaoqing Peng,
  • Zhuoxuan Xia,
  • Lingcao Huang,
  • Rongkun Liu,
  • Sonam Wangchuk,
  • Yuanhe Yang,
  • Lin Liu,
  • Cuicui Mu

摘要

Climate warming is accelerating abrupt permafrost thaw, driving substantial carbon emissions. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) represent the most severe instance of abrupt permafrost thaw, yet their carbon emissions remain poorly quantified due to limited observations. Here, by synthesizing 4728 RTS incidents and 1862 in-situ CO2 and CH4 measurements from RTS-affected zones across the Tibetan Plateau, we estimate that the area of RTS susceptibility will expand by 17–19% by 2100 relative to 2022, driven primarily by precipitation changes. Compared to control areas, the ecosystem respiration rate in collapsed areas decreases by 14.4%, while CH4 release rate increases by 20.0%. The combined CO2 and CH4 release associated with RTS expansion increased 1.1-fold between 2016 and 2022. Under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenario, carbon emissions from RTS-susceptible areas are projected to surge 2.7-fold by 2100. These findings highlight that abrupt thaw strengthens permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude regions, underscoring the urgent need for targeted permafrost protection strategies to achieve carbon neutrality goals.