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<p>Aquatic ecosystems have changed dramatically, but the relative roles of external forcings and internal atmospheric variability remain unclear. Here, using Tibetan lake ecological reconstructions and Earth system simulations, we reveal how shared external forcings shaped Tibetan Plateau limnoecology over the past millennium through two distinct pathways. In the temperature-centric pathway, cooling episodes driven by volcanic activity and internal variability likely regulated preindustrial lake conditions. This baseline was disrupted as recent forced warming has shortened lake ice-cover and increased meltwater input, altering lake resources and triggering unprecedented diatom shifts. In the freshening-centric pathway, salinity-tolerant diatoms tracked monsoon-driven precipitation changes and lake freshening, both governed by shifts in the intertropical convergence zone. Preindustrial shifts likely reflected hemispherically asymmetric orbital and volcanic forcings, whereas modern changes have been altered remarkably by Northern Hemisphere industrial aerosol fluctuations and warming-induced meltwater. As multifaceted stressors intensify, Tibetan lake ecosystems may continue diverging from their natural variability.</p>

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Forced changes in a Tibetan lake ecosystem over the past millennium

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月25日

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  • Wengang Kang,
  • Céline Bonfils,
  • Rui Li,
  • Patrick Rioual,
  • Jianbao Liu,
  • Sten Anslan,
  • Paula Echeverría-Galindo,
  • Anja Schwarz,
  • Bernd Wünnemann,
  • Philipp Hoelzmann,
  • Andrea Lami,
  • Lingxin Huang,
  • Nicole Börner,
  • Junbo Wang,
  • Guangjie Chen,
  • Fahu Chen,
  • Antje Schwalb

摘要

Aquatic ecosystems have changed dramatically, but the relative roles of external forcings and internal atmospheric variability remain unclear. Here, using Tibetan lake ecological reconstructions and Earth system simulations, we reveal how shared external forcings shaped Tibetan Plateau limnoecology over the past millennium through two distinct pathways. In the temperature-centric pathway, cooling episodes driven by volcanic activity and internal variability likely regulated preindustrial lake conditions. This baseline was disrupted as recent forced warming has shortened lake ice-cover and increased meltwater input, altering lake resources and triggering unprecedented diatom shifts. In the freshening-centric pathway, salinity-tolerant diatoms tracked monsoon-driven precipitation changes and lake freshening, both governed by shifts in the intertropical convergence zone. Preindustrial shifts likely reflected hemispherically asymmetric orbital and volcanic forcings, whereas modern changes have been altered remarkably by Northern Hemisphere industrial aerosol fluctuations and warming-induced meltwater. As multifaceted stressors intensify, Tibetan lake ecosystems may continue diverging from their natural variability.