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<p>Urban cooling demand (UCD) is shaped by the three-dimensional evolution of cities, where climate, morphology, and demographic pressures interact to determine thermal energy needs. However, urbanization is driving heterogeneous volumetric growth, spanning horizontal expansion, vertical densification, and infilling, whose combined effects on UCD remain poorly quantified. Here, we analyse 88 Indian and 52 global cities from 2003 to 2023 and reveal a divergence in UCD trajectories driven by growth typologies. Cities undergoing extensive, irregular expansion exhibit the fastest relative increases in UCD despite lower initial demand, whereas medium-sized cities sustain the highest absolute demand. Compact urban forms show moderated trends, indicating structural thermal advantages. Across regions, volumetric growth, particularly vertical development and volumetric densification, is strongly associated with&#xa0;UCD and exhibits substantial explanatory power&#xa0;after climate, suggesting that urban form is&#xa0; an important consideration in&#xa0;climate-responsive and&#xa0;energy-efficient urban transitions.</p>

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Patterns, drivers, and trends of urban cooling demand across global cities

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Nilabhra Mondal,
  • Prashant Anand,
  • Ansar Khan,
  • Matei Georgescu,
  • Dev Niyogi,
  • Mattheos Santamouris

摘要

Urban cooling demand (UCD) is shaped by the three-dimensional evolution of cities, where climate, morphology, and demographic pressures interact to determine thermal energy needs. However, urbanization is driving heterogeneous volumetric growth, spanning horizontal expansion, vertical densification, and infilling, whose combined effects on UCD remain poorly quantified. Here, we analyse 88 Indian and 52 global cities from 2003 to 2023 and reveal a divergence in UCD trajectories driven by growth typologies. Cities undergoing extensive, irregular expansion exhibit the fastest relative increases in UCD despite lower initial demand, whereas medium-sized cities sustain the highest absolute demand. Compact urban forms show moderated trends, indicating structural thermal advantages. Across regions, volumetric growth, particularly vertical development and volumetric densification, is strongly associated with UCD and exhibits substantial explanatory power after climate, suggesting that urban form is  an important consideration in climate-responsive and energy-efficient urban transitions.