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<p>Using ground-based meteorological, hydrological and land cover datasets from 1950 to 2015, we provide evidence that the increase in runoff observed in the semi-arid central Sahel (West Africa) since the 1970-1995 drought is a shift between alternative stable states of low and high runoff. We propose a conceptual model, governed by feedback loops between vegetation and surface runoff, which describes the stabilising mechanisms of each state and the basin-scale impact of local shifts. While the drought was likely the trigger for the shift, land clearing and rainfall intensification may have reinforced it. Due to wetter conditions and greater resilience, other basins further south did not shift. Our study suggests that the shift towards higher runoff is due to surface processes playing a dominant role in this region, with minimal contribution from subsurface processes. This regime shift framework offers a promising perspective on understanding long-term hydrological changes.</p>

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Evidence of hydrological regime shifts associated with a major decades-long drought in West Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Christophe Peugeot,
  • Valentin Wendling,
  • Erwan Le Roux,
  • Gérémy Panthou,
  • Basile Hector,
  • Nathalie Rouché,
  • Arthur Crespin-Boucaud,
  • Guillaume Favreau,
  • Farida Boubé Dobi,
  • Jean-Martial Cohard,
  • Jerôme Demarty,
  • Luc Descroix,
  • Jordi Etchanchu,
  • Manuela Grippa,
  • Pierre Hiernaux,
  • Aghali Ingatan Warzagan,
  • Laurent Kergoat,
  • Moussa Malam Abdou,
  • Eric Mougin,
  • Caroline Pierre,
  • Jean-Louis Rajot,
  • Jean-Pierre Vandervaere,
  • Théo Vischel,
  • Thierry Lebel

摘要

Using ground-based meteorological, hydrological and land cover datasets from 1950 to 2015, we provide evidence that the increase in runoff observed in the semi-arid central Sahel (West Africa) since the 1970-1995 drought is a shift between alternative stable states of low and high runoff. We propose a conceptual model, governed by feedback loops between vegetation and surface runoff, which describes the stabilising mechanisms of each state and the basin-scale impact of local shifts. While the drought was likely the trigger for the shift, land clearing and rainfall intensification may have reinforced it. Due to wetter conditions and greater resilience, other basins further south did not shift. Our study suggests that the shift towards higher runoff is due to surface processes playing a dominant role in this region, with minimal contribution from subsurface processes. This regime shift framework offers a promising perspective on understanding long-term hydrological changes.