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<p>China’s 600 gigawatts (GW) of post-2010 coal power capacity locks in over 2 gigatons (Gt) of annual CO₂ emissions. Green ammonia co-firing offers a viable decarbonization pathway, yet spatial mismatch between ammonia production hubs and coal power plants remains a barrier. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework covering 3958 islanded green ammonia production hubs to evaluate coal power units’ spatial retrofit outcomes under two distinct co-firing strategies: local sourcing and geospatially optimized allocation. Results show that despite green ammonia subsidies, high fuel utilization costs persist for the local sourcing strategy, thereby limiting cumulative energy-related CO₂ reductions to 1.9–4.2 Gt (2020–2060) depending on climate policy stringency. In contrast, a geospatially optimized allocation strategy leveraging key transport corridors (e.g., Inner Mongolia to Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi) delivers cumulative CO₂ abatement of 7.8–15.2 Gt, cuts cumulative CO₂ capture demand by 1.6–6.8 Gt, and lowers cumulative system costs between 2020 and 2060, relative to the local sourcing strategy.</p>

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Geospatial green ammonia co-firing in China’s coal power fleets to avoid CO2 emissions lock-in

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月13日

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  • Huihuang Wu,
  • Xiurong Hu,
  • Xian Wang,
  • Yuhan Zhou,
  • Junfeng Liu,
  • Yang Ren,
  • Boyang Wu,
  • Wendong Ge,
  • Ying Liu,
  • Shu Tao

摘要

China’s 600 gigawatts (GW) of post-2010 coal power capacity locks in over 2 gigatons (Gt) of annual CO₂ emissions. Green ammonia co-firing offers a viable decarbonization pathway, yet spatial mismatch between ammonia production hubs and coal power plants remains a barrier. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework covering 3958 islanded green ammonia production hubs to evaluate coal power units’ spatial retrofit outcomes under two distinct co-firing strategies: local sourcing and geospatially optimized allocation. Results show that despite green ammonia subsidies, high fuel utilization costs persist for the local sourcing strategy, thereby limiting cumulative energy-related CO₂ reductions to 1.9–4.2 Gt (2020–2060) depending on climate policy stringency. In contrast, a geospatially optimized allocation strategy leveraging key transport corridors (e.g., Inner Mongolia to Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi) delivers cumulative CO₂ abatement of 7.8–15.2 Gt, cuts cumulative CO₂ capture demand by 1.6–6.8 Gt, and lowers cumulative system costs between 2020 and 2060, relative to the local sourcing strategy.