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<p>China experienced substantial millennial-scale climate and anthropogenic land use changes, yet their combined impacts on land carbon dynamics remain largely unexamined. Here, we quantify spatiotemporal changes in terrestrial organic carbon over 851–2022 using a land surface model driven by reconstructed climate and land cover forcings. Simulated results show China’s pre-industrial millennial land carbon dynamics aligned with global carbon stock and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> fluctuations, such as the ~284 ppm peak in the 12th century linked to land use during the Medieval Climate Anomaly-warmed Song Dynasty. Notably, China’s total land carbon emissions (13 ± 0.5 PgC) accounted for 22% of global land carbon emissions during 1700–1900, with Northeast and Southwest China experiencing the largest historical land carbon losses from intensive deforestation. Nevertheless, the 17.0 ± 1.7 PgC emissions during 851–1980 were fully offset by rapid carbon sinks over 1980–2022, driven by CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization and large-scale afforestation. These findings provide insights into China’s historical land&#xa0;carbon dynamics, their underlying drivers, and global implications.</p>

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Millennial land carbon emissions in China offset by carbon sinks of the past four decades

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Weizhe Chen,
  • Philippe Ciais,
  • Kailiang Yu,
  • Nicolas Viovy,
  • Shicheng Li,
  • Liangcheng Tan

摘要

China experienced substantial millennial-scale climate and anthropogenic land use changes, yet their combined impacts on land carbon dynamics remain largely unexamined. Here, we quantify spatiotemporal changes in terrestrial organic carbon over 851–2022 using a land surface model driven by reconstructed climate and land cover forcings. Simulated results show China’s pre-industrial millennial land carbon dynamics aligned with global carbon stock and atmospheric CO2 fluctuations, such as the ~284 ppm peak in the 12th century linked to land use during the Medieval Climate Anomaly-warmed Song Dynasty. Notably, China’s total land carbon emissions (13 ± 0.5 PgC) accounted for 22% of global land carbon emissions during 1700–1900, with Northeast and Southwest China experiencing the largest historical land carbon losses from intensive deforestation. Nevertheless, the 17.0 ± 1.7 PgC emissions during 851–1980 were fully offset by rapid carbon sinks over 1980–2022, driven by CO2 fertilization and large-scale afforestation. These findings provide insights into China’s historical land carbon dynamics, their underlying drivers, and global implications.