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<p>Global warming and socio-economic development are together prompting a surge in the use of air-conditioning (AC). Yet the technology that delivers thermal comfort also emits large quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG), exacerbating climate change. We quantify global AC-related GHGs and associated warming impact under five climate scenarios, separating the contributions of global warming and socio-economic development. In a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP245), cumulative AC-related emissions reach 113.3 GtCO<sub>2</sub>eq between 2010 and 2050, increasing global-mean temperature by 0.05 °C (0.03 °C-0.07 °C), with only about 8.3% to climate-driven cooling demand. Income inequalities exacerbate disparities in AC use, substantially limiting access to cooling in lower-income regions. While rising incomes reduce this inequality, they increase emissions: income-driven AC growth adds 14–146 GtCO<sub>2</sub>eq and a further 0.003–0.05 °C of warming by 2050, even under SSP119. These results highlight the need for a rapid low-carbon cooling transition that balances total warming impacts with equitable cooling access.</p>

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Rising Air-Conditioning Use Intensifies Global Warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月25日

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  • Hongzhi Zhang,
  • Yuli Shan,
  • Ruoqi Li,
  • Rui Xue,
  • Junhua Ma,
  • Jarmo Kikstra,
  • Zongbo Shi,
  • Zhaohua Wang,
  • Bin Zhang,
  • Bo Wang,
  • Shuai Fang,
  • Fan Yang,
  • Klaus Hubacek

摘要

Global warming and socio-economic development are together prompting a surge in the use of air-conditioning (AC). Yet the technology that delivers thermal comfort also emits large quantities of greenhouse gases (GHG), exacerbating climate change. We quantify global AC-related GHGs and associated warming impact under five climate scenarios, separating the contributions of global warming and socio-economic development. In a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP245), cumulative AC-related emissions reach 113.3 GtCO2eq between 2010 and 2050, increasing global-mean temperature by 0.05 °C (0.03 °C-0.07 °C), with only about 8.3% to climate-driven cooling demand. Income inequalities exacerbate disparities in AC use, substantially limiting access to cooling in lower-income regions. While rising incomes reduce this inequality, they increase emissions: income-driven AC growth adds 14–146 GtCO2eq and a further 0.003–0.05 °C of warming by 2050, even under SSP119. These results highlight the need for a rapid low-carbon cooling transition that balances total warming impacts with equitable cooling access.