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<p>The Greenland Ice Sheet will significantly contribute to global mean sea-level rise this century. However, glacial isostatic adjustment is expected to cause regional sea-level fall around Greenland as the land rebounds and the gravitational pull of the shrinking ice sheet decreases. A fall in local sea level has implications for Greenlandic communities whose economy, near-shore infrastructure, and food security are vulnerable to coastal changes, and for the dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. In this study, we use a glacial isostatic model paired with sea-level and vertical land motion observations to predict future sea-level change in this region. We find that local sea level will fall around the island by 2100 CE (relative to 2017 CE) reaching a median value and likely range (17th-83rd percentile) of &#xa0;−&#xa0;0.9 m [&#xa0;−&#xa0;1.2 m to &#xa0;−&#xa0;0.66 m] and &#xa0;−&#xa0;2.5 m [&#xa0;−&#xa0;3.8 m to &#xa0;−&#xa0;1.7 m] for Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5, respectively, with viscous effects contributing 20–40% of the predicted local sea-level signal associated with future ice change.</p>

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Projections of 21st-century sea-level fall along coastal Greenland

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

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  • Lauren Lewright,
  • Jacqueline Austermann,
  • Christopher G. Piecuch,
  • Surendra Adhikari,
  • James L. Davis,
  • Glenn A. Milne,
  • Guy J. G. Paxman

摘要

The Greenland Ice Sheet will significantly contribute to global mean sea-level rise this century. However, glacial isostatic adjustment is expected to cause regional sea-level fall around Greenland as the land rebounds and the gravitational pull of the shrinking ice sheet decreases. A fall in local sea level has implications for Greenlandic communities whose economy, near-shore infrastructure, and food security are vulnerable to coastal changes, and for the dynamics of marine-terminating glaciers. In this study, we use a glacial isostatic model paired with sea-level and vertical land motion observations to predict future sea-level change in this region. We find that local sea level will fall around the island by 2100 CE (relative to 2017 CE) reaching a median value and likely range (17th-83rd percentile) of  − 0.9 m [ − 1.2 m to  − 0.66 m] and  − 2.5 m [ − 3.8 m to  − 1.7 m] for Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5, respectively, with viscous effects contributing 20–40% of the predicted local sea-level signal associated with future ice change.