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<p>The global shift toward solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power is crucial to climate mitigation, yet climate change may intensify extreme low-production (ELP) events and affect power reliability. Here, we assess future ELP changes under low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP3-7.0) greenhouse gas and air pollutant&#xa0;emissions scenarios. Even under SSP1-2.6, rising ELP risks are projected to affect more than one-third of global regions, expanding to nearly two-thirds under SSP3-7.0, regardless of whether systems rely on PV, wind, or both. Increases in ELP for wind power are nearly inevitable, with over 75% of currently installed areas experiencing 14.0–24.5% greater production anomalies by the late century. PV power diverges strongly across scenarios, shifting from a 14.8% decrease in anomaly under SSP1-2.6 to a 26.4% increase under SSP3-7.0, particularly in East Asia. Additionally, climate-induced risks disproportionately narrow the benefits of PV development in low- and lower-middle-income economies, where ELP risks rise at 1.8 times the global rate under SSP3-7.0. Our results underscore the need for coordinated mitigation and adaptation to secure power reliability in a changing climate.</p>

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Rising worldwide challenges to climate-induced extreme low-production events of photovoltaic and wind power

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月10日

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  • Qianzhi Wang,
  • Kai Liu,
  • Ming Wang,
  • Zhao Zhang,
  • Hao Chen,
  • Lancui Liu,
  • Jinshan Wu,
  • Heran Zheng

摘要

The global shift toward solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power is crucial to climate mitigation, yet climate change may intensify extreme low-production (ELP) events and affect power reliability. Here, we assess future ELP changes under low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP3-7.0) greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions scenarios. Even under SSP1-2.6, rising ELP risks are projected to affect more than one-third of global regions, expanding to nearly two-thirds under SSP3-7.0, regardless of whether systems rely on PV, wind, or both. Increases in ELP for wind power are nearly inevitable, with over 75% of currently installed areas experiencing 14.0–24.5% greater production anomalies by the late century. PV power diverges strongly across scenarios, shifting from a 14.8% decrease in anomaly under SSP1-2.6 to a 26.4% increase under SSP3-7.0, particularly in East Asia. Additionally, climate-induced risks disproportionately narrow the benefits of PV development in low- and lower-middle-income economies, where ELP risks rise at 1.8 times the global rate under SSP3-7.0. Our results underscore the need for coordinated mitigation and adaptation to secure power reliability in a changing climate.