Scholarlink

<p>Large-scale deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) to meet climate goals imposes dual pressures on power system reliability: increased electricity demand and intensified daily load variability arising from uncertain charging behavior. This study quantifies the magnitude and spatial distribution of behavior-induced load variability in China under alternative climate scenarios, using a scalable model calibrated with minute-level EV charging data. EV adoption consistent with carbon-neutrality goals is projected to raise electricity demand by 3.2% in 2050, requiring an additional annual investment of approximately 220 billion CNY (about 31 billion USD) in battery storage capacity. Accounting for behavioral uncertainty, potential load fluctuations could increase by up to 82.7%. Regional heterogeneity in charging patterns drives distinct spatial profiles of electricity variability, influencing the effectiveness of demand-side management strategies. These findings highlight the importance of targeted, behaviorally informed interventions to mitigate grid reliability risks under deep EV adoption.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Behavioral uncertainty in EV charging drives heterogeneous grid load variability under climate goals

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月6日

查看全文
  • Bin Zhang,
  • Qingyao Xin,
  • Siyuan Chen,
  • Zhaohua Wang,
  • Yang Lu,
  • Niu Niu,
  • Fang Zhang,
  • Guangchuan Liu,
  • Prateek Bansal

摘要

Large-scale deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) to meet climate goals imposes dual pressures on power system reliability: increased electricity demand and intensified daily load variability arising from uncertain charging behavior. This study quantifies the magnitude and spatial distribution of behavior-induced load variability in China under alternative climate scenarios, using a scalable model calibrated with minute-level EV charging data. EV adoption consistent with carbon-neutrality goals is projected to raise electricity demand by 3.2% in 2050, requiring an additional annual investment of approximately 220 billion CNY (about 31 billion USD) in battery storage capacity. Accounting for behavioral uncertainty, potential load fluctuations could increase by up to 82.7%. Regional heterogeneity in charging patterns drives distinct spatial profiles of electricity variability, influencing the effectiveness of demand-side management strategies. These findings highlight the importance of targeted, behaviorally informed interventions to mitigate grid reliability risks under deep EV adoption.