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<p>The EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a nearly complete EU-wide phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 compared to a least-cost net-zero scenario. We show that in the least-cost scenario fossil fuel consumption already decreases by 90% from 2020 to 2050 and is compensated by renewable power, direct electrification, as well as some hydrogen and biofuels. However, hard-to-replace oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas persist primarily in the chemical industry, aviation and shipping. Phasing them out requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which substantially increases marginal abatement costs from 460 EUR to 630 EUR tCO<sub>2</sub><sup>-1</sup> (500-1000 EUR tCO<sub>2</sub><sup>-1</sup>). Our works shows the additional transformation challenges if the EU aims to strengthen its climate policy commitment with a full fossil phase-out target.</p>

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From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月10日

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  • Felix Schreyer,
  • Falko Ueckerdt,
  • Robert Pietzcker,
  • Adrian Odenweller,
  • Anne Merfort,
  • Renato Rodrigues,
  • Jessica Strefler,
  • Fabrice Lécuyer,
  • Gunnar Luderer

摘要

The EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a nearly complete EU-wide phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 compared to a least-cost net-zero scenario. We show that in the least-cost scenario fossil fuel consumption already decreases by 90% from 2020 to 2050 and is compensated by renewable power, direct electrification, as well as some hydrogen and biofuels. However, hard-to-replace oil-based hydrocarbons and natural gas persist primarily in the chemical industry, aviation and shipping. Phasing them out requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which substantially increases marginal abatement costs from 460 EUR to 630 EUR tCO2-1 (500-1000 EUR tCO2-1). Our works shows the additional transformation challenges if the EU aims to strengthen its climate policy commitment with a full fossil phase-out target.