<p>Methane is emitted from oil and gas operations alongside heavier hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbon gases, shaping emissions management decision-making, including air quality impacts. Yet, most assessments assume fixed gas composition, overlooking significant spatial and temporal variations. Here, we generate a high-resolution, data-driven map of natural gas composition across the United States, reconstructing methane, heavier hydrocarbons, and non-hydrocarbon species using spatio-temporal interpolation and oil-and-gas production patterns. Our approach is able to reduce composition prediction errors by 39% in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to standard techniques and reveals that methane loss rates have been underestimated by more than 50% in some regions. Beyond methane, we uncover substantial variability in co-emitted gases, exposing blind spots in current emissions inventories and emissions management frameworks. Our work enables more accurate emissions assessments, guides targeted measurement strategies, and informs emissions management decision-making. It also provides a general framework for prediction in environmental applications that integrate sparse measurements with auxiliary variables.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

High-resolution national mapping of natural gas composition substantially updates methane leakage impacts

  • Philippine M. Burdeau,
  • Evan D. Sherwin,
  • Sébastien C. Biraud,
  • Elena S. F. Berman,
  • Adam R. Brandt

摘要

Methane is emitted from oil and gas operations alongside heavier hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbon gases, shaping emissions management decision-making, including air quality impacts. Yet, most assessments assume fixed gas composition, overlooking significant spatial and temporal variations. Here, we generate a high-resolution, data-driven map of natural gas composition across the United States, reconstructing methane, heavier hydrocarbons, and non-hydrocarbon species using spatio-temporal interpolation and oil-and-gas production patterns. Our approach is able to reduce composition prediction errors by 39% in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to standard techniques and reveals that methane loss rates have been underestimated by more than 50% in some regions. Beyond methane, we uncover substantial variability in co-emitted gases, exposing blind spots in current emissions inventories and emissions management frameworks. Our work enables more accurate emissions assessments, guides targeted measurement strategies, and informs emissions management decision-making. It also provides a general framework for prediction in environmental applications that integrate sparse measurements with auxiliary variables.