<p>Clinical development of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is challenging due to rapid changes in the variant landscape. This study identified a threshold model for neutralising antibody (nAb) titres associated with clinically relevant protection against symptomatic COVID-19 for vulnerable populations. Using efficacy data from the phase 3 PROVENT pre-exposure prophylaxis trial of tixagevimab–cilgavimab (NCT04625725), individual nAb ID<sub>50</sub> titres were predicted by dividing serum mAb concentration by prevalence-adjusted tixagevimab–cilgavimab potency (from in vitro IC<sub>50</sub> values combined with viral surveillance data) and related to efficacy with a Cox model. The Threshold of Protection (ToP) Cox model was externally validated using data from the phase 3 SUPERNOVA trial (NCT05648110), which assessed sipavibart efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in immunocompromised participants. The PROVENT ToP model estimated the variant-specific observed efficacies from SUPERNOVA for 3 and 6 months post any dose with Lin’s concordance of 0.86 and 0.75, respectively. This approach integrates predicted nAb ID<sub>50</sub> titres against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants into a ToP model that can be applied across different variants and could serve as a surrogate endpoint in immunobridging studies to expedite clinical evaluation and regulatory approval for mAbs targeting SARS-CoV-2.</p>

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A SARS-CoV-2 variant‑adjusted threshold of protection model for monoclonal antibody pre-exposure prophylaxis against COVID-19

  • Rhiannon Edge,
  • Sam Matthews,
  • Bahar Ahani,
  • Anastasia A. Aksyuk,
  • Lindsay Clegg,
  • John L. Perez,
  • Mark T. Esser,
  • Lee-Jah Chang,
  • Ian Hirsch,
  • Tonya Villafana,
  • John Pura,
  • Oleg Stepanov,
  • Katie Streicher,
  • Tom White,
  • Taylor S. Cohen,
  • Dean Follmann,
  • Peter B. Gilbert,
  • Seth Seegobin

摘要

Clinical development of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is challenging due to rapid changes in the variant landscape. This study identified a threshold model for neutralising antibody (nAb) titres associated with clinically relevant protection against symptomatic COVID-19 for vulnerable populations. Using efficacy data from the phase 3 PROVENT pre-exposure prophylaxis trial of tixagevimab–cilgavimab (NCT04625725), individual nAb ID50 titres were predicted by dividing serum mAb concentration by prevalence-adjusted tixagevimab–cilgavimab potency (from in vitro IC50 values combined with viral surveillance data) and related to efficacy with a Cox model. The Threshold of Protection (ToP) Cox model was externally validated using data from the phase 3 SUPERNOVA trial (NCT05648110), which assessed sipavibart efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in immunocompromised participants. The PROVENT ToP model estimated the variant-specific observed efficacies from SUPERNOVA for 3 and 6 months post any dose with Lin’s concordance of 0.86 and 0.75, respectively. This approach integrates predicted nAb ID50 titres against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants into a ToP model that can be applied across different variants and could serve as a surrogate endpoint in immunobridging studies to expedite clinical evaluation and regulatory approval for mAbs targeting SARS-CoV-2.