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<p>Retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) is a mass-wasting process characterized by upslope backwasting and rapid thawing of ice-rich permafrost. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from ArcticDEM enable the volumetric and soil organic carbon quantification of medium to large disturbance areas undergoing RTS ( ≥10,000 m<sup>2</sup>) for the Northern Hemisphere. Using DEM time-series analysis and deep learning, we retrieve a total of 2747 disturbance areas undergoing active RTS with a total volume loss of (317.0 ± 0.3) × 10<sup>6 </sup>m<sup>3</sup> between 2012 and 2022. Here we show that climatic drivers of RTS activity exhibit latitudinal and regional variations, specifically, the number of precipitation-driven RTS decreases linearly as latitudes increase, whereas temperature-driven RTS increases sharply. Finally, we estimate that 96% of detected RTS thawed ~1.95 × 10<sup>–3</sup> Pg carbon per year, equivalent to ~0.2% of annual gradual thaw emission estimates. Our results highlight the complexity of regional RTS dynamics and the importance of high resolution, long-term monitoring efforts.</p>

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Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月23日

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  • Chunli Dai,
  • Melissa K. Ward Jones,
  • Jurjen van der Sluijs,
  • Nina Nesterova,
  • Ian M. Howat,
  • Anna K. Liljedahl,
  • Bretwood Higman,
  • Jeffrey T. Freymueller,
  • Steven V. Kokelj,
  • Sindhura Sriram

摘要

Retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) is a mass-wasting process characterized by upslope backwasting and rapid thawing of ice-rich permafrost. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from ArcticDEM enable the volumetric and soil organic carbon quantification of medium to large disturbance areas undergoing RTS ( ≥10,000 m2) for the Northern Hemisphere. Using DEM time-series analysis and deep learning, we retrieve a total of 2747 disturbance areas undergoing active RTS with a total volume loss of (317.0 ± 0.3) × 106 m3 between 2012 and 2022. Here we show that climatic drivers of RTS activity exhibit latitudinal and regional variations, specifically, the number of precipitation-driven RTS decreases linearly as latitudes increase, whereas temperature-driven RTS increases sharply. Finally, we estimate that 96% of detected RTS thawed ~1.95 × 10–3 Pg carbon per year, equivalent to ~0.2% of annual gradual thaw emission estimates. Our results highlight the complexity of regional RTS dynamics and the importance of high resolution, long-term monitoring efforts.