Northern ecosystems (≥ 30° N) have been accumulating vegetation biomass carbon in recent decades, but increasing droughts and wildfires threaten this carbon sink. Here, we analyse annual changes in live vegetation biomass in northern ecosystems using low-frequency microwave satellite observations at 25 km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2022. We find that live biomass carbon stocks have undergone a reversal from a positive to a negative trend during the study period with 2016 marking the turning point. During 2016–2022, live biomass carbon stocks decreased at a rate of <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41467_2025_59999_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="22" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="83" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${-{{\mathbf{0.20}}}}_{-{{\mathbf{0.26}}}}^{-{{\mathbf{0.11}}}}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msubsup> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.20</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.26</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.11</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> PgC yr−1 across northern ecosystems, primarily in temperate biomes (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41467_2025_59999_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="22" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="83" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${-{{\mathbf{0.26}}}}_{-{{\mathbf{0.33}}}}^{-{{\mathbf{0.17}}}}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msubsup> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.26</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.33</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.17</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> PgC yr−1). The annual mean gross loss of 4% of live biomass carbon in this region during 2016-2022 reflects high interannual variability, with significant losses associated with droughts and a further drop of <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="41467_2025_59999_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="22" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="83" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">${-{{\mathbf{0.60}}}}_{-{{\mathbf{0.75}}}}^{-{{\mathbf{0.47}}}}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msubsup> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.60</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.75</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>−</mo> <mi mathvariant="bold">0.47</mi> </mrow> </msubsup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> PgC in the very dry year of 2022. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of live biomass carbon stocks to emerging climate-induced disturbances in northern ecosystems, challenging the sustainability of the current large terrestrial carbon sink in this key region for the global carbon balance.

Large live biomass carbon losses from droughts in the northern temperate ecosystems during 2016-2022

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2025年6月2日

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Xiaojun Li,
Philippe Ciais,
Rasmus Fensholt,
Jérome Chave,
Stephen Sitch,
Josep G. Canadell,
Martin Brandt,
Lei Fan,
Xiangming Xiao,
Shengli Tao,
Huan Wang,
Clément Albergel,
Hui Yang,
Frédéric Frappart,
Mengjia Wang,
Ana Bastos,
Philippe Maisongrande,
Yuanwei Qin,
Zanpin Xing,
Tianxiang Cui,
Ling Yu,
Lei He,
Yi Zheng,
Xiangzhuo Liu,
Yuqing Liu,
Aurelien De Truchis,
Jean-Pierre Wigneron

摘要

Northern ecosystems (≥ 30° N) have been accumulating vegetation biomass carbon in recent decades, but increasing droughts and wildfires threaten this carbon sink. Here, we analyse annual changes in live vegetation biomass in northern ecosystems using low-frequency microwave satellite observations at 25 km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2022. We find that live biomass carbon stocks have undergone a reversal from a positive to a negative trend during the study period with 2016 marking the turning point. During 2016–2022, live biomass carbon stocks decreased at a rate of ${-{{\mathbf{0.20}}}}_{-{{\mathbf{0.26}}}}^{-{{\mathbf{0.11}}}}$ ${- 0.20}_{- 0.26}^{- 0.11}$ PgC yr⁻¹ across northern ecosystems, primarily in temperate biomes ( ${-{{\mathbf{0.26}}}}_{-{{\mathbf{0.33}}}}^{-{{\mathbf{0.17}}}}$ ${- 0.26}_{- 0.33}^{- 0.17}$ PgC yr⁻¹). The annual mean gross loss of 4% of live biomass carbon in this region during 2016-2022 reflects high interannual variability, with significant losses associated with droughts and a further drop of ${-{{\mathbf{0.60}}}}_{-{{\mathbf{0.75}}}}^{-{{\mathbf{0.47}}}}$ ${- 0.60}_{- 0.75}^{- 0.47}$ PgC in the very dry year of 2022. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of live biomass carbon stocks to emerging climate-induced disturbances in northern ecosystems, challenging the sustainability of the current large terrestrial carbon sink in this key region for the global carbon balance.