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<p>Polygenic score (PGS) predictions of educational achievement are sizeable at the population level. Yet, population-level PGS predictions are environmentally confounded, due to gene-environment correlations, assortative mating, and population stratification. This confounding complicates the interpretation and application of PGS predictions of educational achievement. Here, we charted the variability of PGS predictions in <i>N</i> = 8115 dizygotic twins from UK, US, Swedish, and German samples aged 7 to 19 years. Population-level PGS predictions of educational achievement ranged from β = 0.16 to β = 0.37 across ages and countries. Discerning within- and between-family level estimates, we found that 10 to 65% of the population-level PGS predictions were due to environmental confounding, of which 29 to 100% were accounted for by family socioeconomic status. Variability in within-family and population-level PGS predictions was largely unsystematic across countries’ school systems (multi-tiered vs. comprehensive) and children’s ages. Therefore, interpretations regarding the sources of environmental confounding effects on educational achievement remain, at present, speculative.</p>

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Within- and between-family genetic effects on educational achievement vary across countries and ages

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月20日

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  • Alexandra Starr,
  • Mirko Ruks,
  • Alexandros Giannelis,
  • Emily Willoughby,
  • Oskar Pettersson,
  • Charlotte K. L. Pahnke,
  • Carlo Maj,
  • Anastasia Andreas,
  • Rafael Ahlskog,
  • Louise Arseneault,
  • Helen L. Fisher,
  • Andreas J. Forstner,
  • Christian Kandler,
  • Matt McGue,
  • Markus M. Nöthen,
  • Sven Oskarsson,
  • Frank M. Spinath,
  • Scott Vrieze,
  • Jasmin Wertz,
  • Sophie von Stumm

摘要

Polygenic score (PGS) predictions of educational achievement are sizeable at the population level. Yet, population-level PGS predictions are environmentally confounded, due to gene-environment correlations, assortative mating, and population stratification. This confounding complicates the interpretation and application of PGS predictions of educational achievement. Here, we charted the variability of PGS predictions in N = 8115 dizygotic twins from UK, US, Swedish, and German samples aged 7 to 19 years. Population-level PGS predictions of educational achievement ranged from β = 0.16 to β = 0.37 across ages and countries. Discerning within- and between-family level estimates, we found that 10 to 65% of the population-level PGS predictions were due to environmental confounding, of which 29 to 100% were accounted for by family socioeconomic status. Variability in within-family and population-level PGS predictions was largely unsystematic across countries’ school systems (multi-tiered vs. comprehensive) and children’s ages. Therefore, interpretations regarding the sources of environmental confounding effects on educational achievement remain, at present, speculative.