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<p>In order to provide insights crucial for achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, this study attempts to evaluate the global burden of hypertensive heart disease (HHD) owing to high BMI, stratified by gender and SDI, from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2051. Leveraging Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we assessed HHD mortality and DALYs attributable to high BMI via DisMod-MR 2.1. Health inequalities were quantified using SII and CI, with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling enabling gender-stratified projections. Global HHD deaths attributable to high BMI showed a relative change of 1.48 from 1990–2021, corresponding to an approximately 148% increase. Females experienced disproportionately higher mortality (relative change +1.4) and DALYs (relative change +1.12) than males. Southern sub-Saharan Africa recorded the steepest ASMR increase (relative change +0.54), while East Asia saw mortality surge (relative change +1.14). The escalating HHD burden from high BMI is a health inequality crisis, disproportionately affecting females and low-resource regions. This demands urgent tiered interventions and requires reconciling economic growth with health system resilience to address the underlying socioeconomic paradox.</p>

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Hypertensive heart disease attributable to high BMI: global trends, gender disparities, and SDI-based inequalities (1990–2021)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Yiming Zhou,
  • Yukang Mao,
  • Minshan Zhong,
  • Yuxuan Lou,
  • Yang Hua,
  • Wei Sun,
  • Tingting Wu

摘要

In order to provide insights crucial for achieving UN Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, this study attempts to evaluate the global burden of hypertensive heart disease (HHD) owing to high BMI, stratified by gender and SDI, from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2051. Leveraging Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we assessed HHD mortality and DALYs attributable to high BMI via DisMod-MR 2.1. Health inequalities were quantified using SII and CI, with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling enabling gender-stratified projections. Global HHD deaths attributable to high BMI showed a relative change of 1.48 from 1990–2021, corresponding to an approximately 148% increase. Females experienced disproportionately higher mortality (relative change +1.4) and DALYs (relative change +1.12) than males. Southern sub-Saharan Africa recorded the steepest ASMR increase (relative change +0.54), while East Asia saw mortality surge (relative change +1.14). The escalating HHD burden from high BMI is a health inequality crisis, disproportionately affecting females and low-resource regions. This demands urgent tiered interventions and requires reconciling economic growth with health system resilience to address the underlying socioeconomic paradox.