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<p>The widespread adoption of residential solar photovoltaic systems is key to decarbonizing the energy system. However, access to zero-marginal-cost electricity may induce increased consumption, known as the solar rebound effect (SRE). Combining longitudinal household panel data with survey evidence and machine-learning-based reconstruction of total electricity consumption, we confirm the presence of the SRE. The average generation-based effect of about 20.1% is robust over system dimensioning and negatively correlated with pre-installation electricity use. Moreover, efficient households exhibit significantly higher rebound effects. From a system perspective, an SRE of this magnitude could add more than 2000 TWh of global household electricity demand by 2050, with implications for grid infrastructure, generation capacity, and life-cycle emissions. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating rebound effects into energy system and life-cycle models and suggest that policies promoting PV deployment should be complemented by measures that preserve marginal price signals and address post-adoption consumption behavior.</p>

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Here comes the sun: investigating the solar rebound effect and consumption behavior in photovoltaic households

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月27日

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  • Stefan Poier,
  • Michael Bucksteeg

摘要

The widespread adoption of residential solar photovoltaic systems is key to decarbonizing the energy system. However, access to zero-marginal-cost electricity may induce increased consumption, known as the solar rebound effect (SRE). Combining longitudinal household panel data with survey evidence and machine-learning-based reconstruction of total electricity consumption, we confirm the presence of the SRE. The average generation-based effect of about 20.1% is robust over system dimensioning and negatively correlated with pre-installation electricity use. Moreover, efficient households exhibit significantly higher rebound effects. From a system perspective, an SRE of this magnitude could add more than 2000 TWh of global household electricity demand by 2050, with implications for grid infrastructure, generation capacity, and life-cycle emissions. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating rebound effects into energy system and life-cycle models and suggest that policies promoting PV deployment should be complemented by measures that preserve marginal price signals and address post-adoption consumption behavior.