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<p>The hydrogen industry requires an integrated decarbonization strategy that aligns supply-side optimization with demand-side growth to support effective policy design and long-term sustainability. This study develops an integrated hybrid input–output and logarithmic mean Divisia index framework that combines physical and monetary flow analysis to trace emissions across the hydrogen supply chain and capture system-wide dynamics across the resource–environment–economy nexus. Applied to China, the model projects hydrogen demand to increase fourfold, from 33.0&#xa0;Mt in 2020 to 140.9&#xa0;Mt in 2060, driven by expanding use in industrial sectors, transport, and utilities. With electrolysis becoming the dominant production route, direct carbon emissions peak at 625.3&#xa0;MtCO<sub>2</sub> in 2030 and fall to 175.1&#xa0;MtCO<sub>2</sub> by 2060, representing a 72.1% reduction achieved through technology substitution and renewable power integration. Decomposition analysis shows that hydrogen-based technologies can contribute 46.7% of total mitigation in hard-to-abate sectors. Scenario and sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of these results across alternative hydrogen demand and structural assumptions. The results highlight hydrogen’s central role as a low-carbon energy carrier.</p>

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Integrated hydrogen system analysis across the resource-environment-economy nexus: a case study of China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月1日

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  • Maximilian Arras,
  • Anne Yingqiu Liang,
  • Yuning Fu,
  • Zheng Li,
  • Linwei Ma

摘要

The hydrogen industry requires an integrated decarbonization strategy that aligns supply-side optimization with demand-side growth to support effective policy design and long-term sustainability. This study develops an integrated hybrid input–output and logarithmic mean Divisia index framework that combines physical and monetary flow analysis to trace emissions across the hydrogen supply chain and capture system-wide dynamics across the resource–environment–economy nexus. Applied to China, the model projects hydrogen demand to increase fourfold, from 33.0 Mt in 2020 to 140.9 Mt in 2060, driven by expanding use in industrial sectors, transport, and utilities. With electrolysis becoming the dominant production route, direct carbon emissions peak at 625.3 MtCO2 in 2030 and fall to 175.1 MtCO2 by 2060, representing a 72.1% reduction achieved through technology substitution and renewable power integration. Decomposition analysis shows that hydrogen-based technologies can contribute 46.7% of total mitigation in hard-to-abate sectors. Scenario and sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of these results across alternative hydrogen demand and structural assumptions. The results highlight hydrogen’s central role as a low-carbon energy carrier.