Evaluating a greener tax system in Chile through a dynamic CGE model and microsimulation at the firm level
摘要
This study evaluates the introduction of Pigouvian taxes on CO2, SO2, NOX, and PM emissions, replacing the specific fuel taxes and the environmental taxes currently applied in Chile. Specifically, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate changes in energy input quantities resulting from the proposed tax reform. Subsequently, the CGE model results and survey data on industrial firms are linked to simulate changes in energy input consumption and emissions at the firm level. This top-down approach is novel and relevant to industrial ecology because it allows a systemic view of industrial metabolism by combining macroeconomic coherence with microeconomic heterogeneity. The results show that implementing a Pigouvian tax on CO2 is effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector; however, the reduction is greater when Pigouvian taxes on SO2, NOX, and PM emissions are also applied. Specifically, a Pigouvian tax on all pollutants reduces industrial emissions of CO2, SO2, NOX, and PM in the short term by approximately 9%, 14%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. Finally, it is concluded that applying Pigouvian taxes would accelerate the industrial sector’s energy transition but would not be sufficient to induce significant structural changes in terms of industrial ecology.