<p>The refining sector plays a crucial role in the decarbonization of fossil fuel systems due to its function in petroleum processing and its substantial contribution to industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Refineries, as capital-intensive facilities with high retrofit costs, face increasing risks of asset stranding under carbon neutrality targets, reflecting a typical transition risk in industrial decarbonization. This study develops a plant-level assessment framework that combines refinery capacity demand from GCAM-China with facility-specific decarbonization strategies, and incorporates detailed financial modeling to evaluate asset value loss under alternative transition scenarios. Three retrofit pathways are designed at the plant level—green hydrogen (GH₂), carbon capture and storage (CCS), and a hybrid MIX strategy—reflecting different technological options for low-carbon transition. This approach enables a high-resolution evaluation of stranded asset risks in both spatial and temporal distribution. Results show that the MIX pathway yields the lowest stranded assets (339.0 billion CNY), surpassing GH₂ (526.5 billion) and CCS (395.8 billion). Spatial risks concentrate in key refining regions such as Shandong and Liaoning, while MIX exhibits enhanced technological flexibility across plants. In the near term (2030–2040), CCS dominates due to lower retrofit costs, while GH₂ becomes more competitive after 2050 as costs decline. By adopting the most cost-effective technology at each stage, the MIX pathway minimizes early lock-in and enhances long-term adaptability, demonstrating superior performance in both risk reduction and transition robustness. Stranded assets highlight transition risks and call for diversified technologies, regional strategies, and plant-level assessments to enable a just and cost-effective transition.</p>