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<p>The study region, extending from Kashmir to the North-Western Indian Himalaya, has undergone rapid development and population expansion, underscoring the need for a comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) to ensure safe and resilient growth. This study estimates seismic hazard at the engineering bedrock level for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance (PoE) in 50 years by incorporating both tectonic and layered seismogenic source models across four hypocentral depth ranges, viz. 0-25 km, 25-70 km, 70-180 km and 180-300 km. The PSHA is implemented within a logic-tree framework integrating 18 Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), including 9 Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models, to address epistemic uncertainty. The resulting Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at engineering bedrock varies from 0·21 g to 0·95 g for 10% PoE and from 1·43 g to 1·53 g for 2% PoE in 50 years. Seismic site classification has been carried out using an integrated geophysical and geotechnical database together with Topographic Gradient-derived V<sub>S</sub><sup>30</sup>, classifying the region into 10 site classes ranging from E to B/A. 1D-DEEPSOIL and PLAXIS-2D analyses have been performed to evaluate site response, and the derived amplification is convolved with bedrock hazard to obtain surface-consistent PGA varies from 0·29 g to 1·78 g for 475 years of return period. Seismic Hazard Microzonation and damage potential assessment have been further conducted for capital cities. The outcomes of this study provide a critical basis for earthquake-disaster mitigation and risk-informed planning in this tectonically active Himalayan region.</p>

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Surface-consistent Probabilistic seismic hazard microzonation and damage potential modelling based on 1D/2D site characterization from Kashmir to North-Western Indian Himalaya

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Amrendra Pratap Bind,
  • Sankar Kumar Nath,
  • Shubhamay Maji,
  • Probal Sengupta

摘要

The study region, extending from Kashmir to the North-Western Indian Himalaya, has undergone rapid development and population expansion, underscoring the need for a comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) to ensure safe and resilient growth. This study estimates seismic hazard at the engineering bedrock level for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance (PoE) in 50 years by incorporating both tectonic and layered seismogenic source models across four hypocentral depth ranges, viz. 0-25 km, 25-70 km, 70-180 km and 180-300 km. The PSHA is implemented within a logic-tree framework integrating 18 Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), including 9 Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models, to address epistemic uncertainty. The resulting Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at engineering bedrock varies from 0·21 g to 0·95 g for 10% PoE and from 1·43 g to 1·53 g for 2% PoE in 50 years. Seismic site classification has been carried out using an integrated geophysical and geotechnical database together with Topographic Gradient-derived VS30, classifying the region into 10 site classes ranging from E to B/A. 1D-DEEPSOIL and PLAXIS-2D analyses have been performed to evaluate site response, and the derived amplification is convolved with bedrock hazard to obtain surface-consistent PGA varies from 0·29 g to 1·78 g for 475 years of return period. Seismic Hazard Microzonation and damage potential assessment have been further conducted for capital cities. The outcomes of this study provide a critical basis for earthquake-disaster mitigation and risk-informed planning in this tectonically active Himalayan region.