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<p><i>Podocarpus neriifolius</i> D. Don, a conifer species from the Podocarpaceae family confined to very specific microhabitats in tropical hill forests of Bangladesh, is highly susceptible to habitat loss under global climate change. This study employed an optimized maximum entropy model for species distribution modeling to assess the current and future habitat suitability of <i>P. neriifolius</i> under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for the 2050s and 2070s. Using 19 occurrence points and 9 systematically selected bioclimatic, topographic, and soil variables, the model demonstrated excellent performance, where key environmental predictors were elevation, minimum temperature of the coldest period, and iso-thermality. Under current climatic conditions, only 3.53 × 103 km<sup>2</sup>, which represents 2.46% of Bangladesh’s landmass, is highly suitable for the species. Future projections indicate dynamic shifts in suitable habitat, with total suitable area ranging from 26.5 × 103 to 40.5 × 103&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup> depending on the emission scenario and timeframe, but a decline in high suitable zones. The south-eastern hilly regions, <i>e.g.</i>, Chattogram, Chittagong Hill Tracts, Sylhet, and Cox’s Bazar, consistently emerge as potential climate refugia and should be prioritized in conservation efforts. The findings highlight the vulnerability of <i>P. neriifolius</i> to climate-driven range shifts and the risk of habitat loss under high-emission trajectories. This study provides the first climate-informed spatial prediction of the species suitability distribution in Bangladesh under the IPCC’s future climate projection, and highlights the urgent need to integrate predictive modeling into the national biodiversity policies.</p>

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Climate-driven habitat suitability modelling of brown pine (Podocarpus neriifolius) in Bangladesh using MaxEnt model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月20日

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  • Mehedi Hasan Rakib,
  • Sakib Shahriar,
  • Kazi Nazrul Islam,
  • Mohammed Jashimuddin

摘要

Podocarpus neriifolius D. Don, a conifer species from the Podocarpaceae family confined to very specific microhabitats in tropical hill forests of Bangladesh, is highly susceptible to habitat loss under global climate change. This study employed an optimized maximum entropy model for species distribution modeling to assess the current and future habitat suitability of P. neriifolius under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for the 2050s and 2070s. Using 19 occurrence points and 9 systematically selected bioclimatic, topographic, and soil variables, the model demonstrated excellent performance, where key environmental predictors were elevation, minimum temperature of the coldest period, and iso-thermality. Under current climatic conditions, only 3.53 × 103 km2, which represents 2.46% of Bangladesh’s landmass, is highly suitable for the species. Future projections indicate dynamic shifts in suitable habitat, with total suitable area ranging from 26.5 × 103 to 40.5 × 103 km2 depending on the emission scenario and timeframe, but a decline in high suitable zones. The south-eastern hilly regions, e.g., Chattogram, Chittagong Hill Tracts, Sylhet, and Cox’s Bazar, consistently emerge as potential climate refugia and should be prioritized in conservation efforts. The findings highlight the vulnerability of P. neriifolius to climate-driven range shifts and the risk of habitat loss under high-emission trajectories. This study provides the first climate-informed spatial prediction of the species suitability distribution in Bangladesh under the IPCC’s future climate projection, and highlights the urgent need to integrate predictive modeling into the national biodiversity policies.