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<p>This study assesses how future climate change may alter the local habitat suitability of the Atlas cedar (<i>Cedrus atlantica</i> (Endl.) G.Manetti ex Carrière, Pinaceae) within Chelia National Park (Algeria) and examines the implications for sustainable conservation planning. Using MaxEnt and <i>N</i> = 107 spatially thinned occurrence points (filtered to reduce sampling bias), we modeled current habitat suitability based on bioclimatic predictors and projected changes under two CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Climate projections were derived from the WorldClim v2.1 CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, and model transferability was evaluated through clamping and MESS extrapolation checks. The model performed reasonably well (AUC = 0.83) within the restricted environmental gradients of the park. Currently, ~ 10% of Chelia NP supports highly suitable conditions, mainly in moist, high-elevation microrefugia, whereas ~ 64% is unsuitable. Future scenarios indicate substantial local habitat loss and fragmentation, with highly suitable areas declining by ~ 25% under SSP5-8.5 by 2070. Minimum winter temperature (BIO6) showed the highest contribution. We clarify that BIO6 likely reflects cold-tolerance limits on C. atlantica. This is supported by evidence that winter cold critically controls tree distributions. We discuss these results in the context of sustainability priorities, highlighting their relevance to SDGs 13 (Climate Action) and 15 (Life on Land). The outcomes highlight the need for conservation policies that integrate climate adaptation and biodiversity protection within the park’s bioclimatic constraints.</p>

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Climate resilience of Atlas cedar: habitat suitability modeling for climate action and life on land

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月3日

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  • Hichem Chenaker,
  • Rami Khoucha,
  • Ayad M. Fadhil Al-Quraishi,
  • Mohamed A. Atalla,
  • Heba Bedair

摘要

This study assesses how future climate change may alter the local habitat suitability of the Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) G.Manetti ex Carrière, Pinaceae) within Chelia National Park (Algeria) and examines the implications for sustainable conservation planning. Using MaxEnt and N = 107 spatially thinned occurrence points (filtered to reduce sampling bias), we modeled current habitat suitability based on bioclimatic predictors and projected changes under two CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Climate projections were derived from the WorldClim v2.1 CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, and model transferability was evaluated through clamping and MESS extrapolation checks. The model performed reasonably well (AUC = 0.83) within the restricted environmental gradients of the park. Currently, ~ 10% of Chelia NP supports highly suitable conditions, mainly in moist, high-elevation microrefugia, whereas ~ 64% is unsuitable. Future scenarios indicate substantial local habitat loss and fragmentation, with highly suitable areas declining by ~ 25% under SSP5-8.5 by 2070. Minimum winter temperature (BIO6) showed the highest contribution. We clarify that BIO6 likely reflects cold-tolerance limits on C. atlantica. This is supported by evidence that winter cold critically controls tree distributions. We discuss these results in the context of sustainability priorities, highlighting their relevance to SDGs 13 (Climate Action) and 15 (Life on Land). The outcomes highlight the need for conservation policies that integrate climate adaptation and biodiversity protection within the park’s bioclimatic constraints.