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<p>Species distribution modeling, or SDM, is a useful tool for identifying species potential distribution and assessing how human-caused changes affect particular species in desert environments. The fact that such applications are still uncommon on plant species in the Arabian Peninsula may have to do with the fact that many dry lands and deserts throughout the world are located in hostile environments. The First Biennial Update Report (BUR1) - UNFCCC mentioned that as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, <i>Ballota adenophora</i>, like many other species, faces increased stress from altered growing conditions and habitat loss. Over the past century, the <i>Ballota adenophora</i>’s population has drastically decreased throughout its geographic range. Changes in natural resources, such water and nutrient availability, brought on by ongoing climate change are linked to this decline. We examined how <i>B. adenophora</i> might respond to anticipated climate change over the coming decades using species distribution models (SDMs). We fitted ensemble SDMs using recently created climatic data based on more precise climate models and a variety of dispersal scenarios in order to lessen uncertainty and bias in our SDM predictions. Our Species Distribution Models (SDMs) revealed significant habitat suitability in Madinah, Tabuk, the Hisma range, Jabal Al Lauz, and Jabal Radua, north of Yanbu. Further, our models anticipated that the distribution range of <i>B. adenophora</i> will drop by more than 4% during the next few decades. Our findings advocate for immediate conservation action at the global and national levels to mitigate the effects of climate change on <i>B. adenophora</i>. This study can help shape policy and mitigation efforts to protect and preserve endemic species in the Arabian Peninsula. These hotspots should be focused on by policy makers and stakeholders and declared as protectorates in the region. The largest number of species per area would be protected by focusing primarily on the hotspots with high potential habitat suitability.</p>

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Potential distribution of the endangered Ballota adenophora, endemic to Saudi Arabia under climate change scenarios: toward conservation prioritization

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月10日

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  • Hassan M. Alzain,
  • Hassan A. Alkhunaizi,
  • Heba Bedair

摘要

Species distribution modeling, or SDM, is a useful tool for identifying species potential distribution and assessing how human-caused changes affect particular species in desert environments. The fact that such applications are still uncommon on plant species in the Arabian Peninsula may have to do with the fact that many dry lands and deserts throughout the world are located in hostile environments. The First Biennial Update Report (BUR1) - UNFCCC mentioned that as temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, Ballota adenophora, like many other species, faces increased stress from altered growing conditions and habitat loss. Over the past century, the Ballota adenophora’s population has drastically decreased throughout its geographic range. Changes in natural resources, such water and nutrient availability, brought on by ongoing climate change are linked to this decline. We examined how B. adenophora might respond to anticipated climate change over the coming decades using species distribution models (SDMs). We fitted ensemble SDMs using recently created climatic data based on more precise climate models and a variety of dispersal scenarios in order to lessen uncertainty and bias in our SDM predictions. Our Species Distribution Models (SDMs) revealed significant habitat suitability in Madinah, Tabuk, the Hisma range, Jabal Al Lauz, and Jabal Radua, north of Yanbu. Further, our models anticipated that the distribution range of B. adenophora will drop by more than 4% during the next few decades. Our findings advocate for immediate conservation action at the global and national levels to mitigate the effects of climate change on B. adenophora. This study can help shape policy and mitigation efforts to protect and preserve endemic species in the Arabian Peninsula. These hotspots should be focused on by policy makers and stakeholders and declared as protectorates in the region. The largest number of species per area would be protected by focusing primarily on the hotspots with high potential habitat suitability.