Challenges and Strategic Recommendations for Enhancing Quantification and Projection of Forest Carbon Dynamics
摘要
The critical role of forest carbon modeling in climate change mitigation and adaptation has brought it to the forefront of natural climate solutions (NCS) discussions. To facilitate scientific inquiry related to forest carbon and its climate change mitigation potential, we synthesize current challenges and recommend strategic advancements for quantifying and projecting forest carbon dynamics. A national collaborative effort, engaging stakeholders from academia, industry, and policy sectors, has identified key six areas for scientific development, including tree growth, mortality, and regeneration models, genetics and silviculture, forest floor and belowground carbon, natural disturbances, carbon reporting, and carbon tools and applications. We provide actionable recommendations, such as creating nationally consistent frameworks for forest dynamics models, improving model-data integration for disturbance effects, establishing best practices for uncertainty in carbon reporting, and expanding online tools for spatially explicit carbon estimates. Some of these recommendations are achievable in the short term (3–5 years) and others require longer-term investments (10 + years). Emphasizing a multi-phase strategy that builds on established modeling frameworks such as the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), we articulate how these priorities can support policy and management decisions. Integrating these efforts can advance collective knowledge and enhance our forecasting capabilities of forest carbon in response to climate, disturbances, industrial needs, and management practices, thereby aiding natural climate objectives and the broader ecosystem services provided by forests.