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<p>Forest plantations play a crucial role in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, yet their economic viability under extended rotations remains uncertain. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of extending rotation ages in <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i>, <i>Eucalyptus nitens</i>, and <i>Pinus radiata</i> plantations across contrasting productivity zones in Chile, incorporating payments for environmental services (PES) based on carbon storage. We applied an adapted Faustmann model incorporating carbon payments to calculate Net Present Values (NPV) for different rotation lengths. We used growth simulations from the Eucasim and Insigne models calibrated for local conditions. Monte Carlo simulations assessed uncertainty in key parameters including CO₂ prices, silvicultural costs, and timber yields. Results showed that extending rotations increased NPV by up to 20.9% for <i>E. nitens</i> and 18.9% for <i>E. globulus</i> in low-productivity environments, with optimal extensions of 6 and 7&#xa0;years, respectively, beyond the 12-year baseline. In contrast, <i>P. radiata</i> showed negative returns for extended rotations beyond 22&#xa0;years. Sensitivity analysis revealed that CO₂ price uncertainty contributed &gt; 50% to NPV variability, followed by pulpwood prices (16%) and discount rates (4%). These findings demonstrate that PES can make extended rotations economically viable for eucalyptus species, particularly in marginal lands, while <i>P. radiata</i> requires additional government incentives. The study provides quantitative evidence for designing forest policies that integrate carbon markets with timber production, supporting Chile's climate mitigation goals while maintaining economic returns for landowners.</p>

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Integrating Carbon Markets into Forest Management: Economic Analysis of Extended Rotations with PES in Chile

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月29日

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  • Eduardo Acuña,
  • Simón Sandoval,
  • Cristián R. Montes,
  • Guillermo F. Olmedo,
  • Aldo Cerda,
  • Pablo Mena-Quijada

摘要

Forest plantations play a crucial role in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, yet their economic viability under extended rotations remains uncertain. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of extending rotation ages in Eucalyptus globulus, Eucalyptus nitens, and Pinus radiata plantations across contrasting productivity zones in Chile, incorporating payments for environmental services (PES) based on carbon storage. We applied an adapted Faustmann model incorporating carbon payments to calculate Net Present Values (NPV) for different rotation lengths. We used growth simulations from the Eucasim and Insigne models calibrated for local conditions. Monte Carlo simulations assessed uncertainty in key parameters including CO₂ prices, silvicultural costs, and timber yields. Results showed that extending rotations increased NPV by up to 20.9% for E. nitens and 18.9% for E. globulus in low-productivity environments, with optimal extensions of 6 and 7 years, respectively, beyond the 12-year baseline. In contrast, P. radiata showed negative returns for extended rotations beyond 22 years. Sensitivity analysis revealed that CO₂ price uncertainty contributed > 50% to NPV variability, followed by pulpwood prices (16%) and discount rates (4%). These findings demonstrate that PES can make extended rotations economically viable for eucalyptus species, particularly in marginal lands, while P. radiata requires additional government incentives. The study provides quantitative evidence for designing forest policies that integrate carbon markets with timber production, supporting Chile's climate mitigation goals while maintaining economic returns for landowners.