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Abstract <p>Using an Input–Output framework, this analysis investigates how shifts in production technology and final demand have impacted the Forest Sector’s economic contributions over time. The total output change was decomposed into three factors production technology of the Forest Sector, production technology of other sectors and final demand of the economy— allowing us to determine the primary factors responsible for a change in output over time. Further, diagonalizing the final demand vector allows us to examine the trends along its supply and value chains. The study revealed a significant decline in New York State’s (NYS’s) Forest Sector output, attributable to reduced demand and external economic pressures, including the impacts of the 2008–2009 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, we found that despite a 3.3% increase in output from technological improvements and more local input usage, a substantial drop in final demand resulted in a 33.2% decrease in production along its supply chain and a 34% reduction along its value chain. However, a modest recovery in 2022 suggests a shift towards more localized supply chains and intra-state trade, potentially benefiting the sector in the long run. Additionally, the study reveals that the gross output of the NYS’s Forest Sector severely depends on the final demand of the Manufacturing Sector.</p> Study Implication <p>This study examines the trend of the economic contribution of New York State’s (NYS) Forest Sector over a 22-year period. The developed model can be used to study the dynamics of the production technology and final demand of any sector of a given economy. The paper demonstrated that the decomposition of economic contributions introduces a new dimension into contribution analysis, offering stakeholders and policymakers a nuanced perspective for informed decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of understanding sector-specific dynamics and the need for targeted policy interventions to support the Forest Sector's resilience and growth.</p>

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Decomposing the Economic Contribution of a Sector: A Case Study of New York State’s Forest Sector

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月28日

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  • Basanta Lamsal,
  • Mariela Cavo,
  • John E. Wagner

摘要

Abstract

Using an Input–Output framework, this analysis investigates how shifts in production technology and final demand have impacted the Forest Sector’s economic contributions over time. The total output change was decomposed into three factors production technology of the Forest Sector, production technology of other sectors and final demand of the economy— allowing us to determine the primary factors responsible for a change in output over time. Further, diagonalizing the final demand vector allows us to examine the trends along its supply and value chains. The study revealed a significant decline in New York State’s (NYS’s) Forest Sector output, attributable to reduced demand and external economic pressures, including the impacts of the 2008–2009 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, we found that despite a 3.3% increase in output from technological improvements and more local input usage, a substantial drop in final demand resulted in a 33.2% decrease in production along its supply chain and a 34% reduction along its value chain. However, a modest recovery in 2022 suggests a shift towards more localized supply chains and intra-state trade, potentially benefiting the sector in the long run. Additionally, the study reveals that the gross output of the NYS’s Forest Sector severely depends on the final demand of the Manufacturing Sector.

Study Implication

This study examines the trend of the economic contribution of New York State’s (NYS) Forest Sector over a 22-year period. The developed model can be used to study the dynamics of the production technology and final demand of any sector of a given economy. The paper demonstrated that the decomposition of economic contributions introduces a new dimension into contribution analysis, offering stakeholders and policymakers a nuanced perspective for informed decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of understanding sector-specific dynamics and the need for targeted policy interventions to support the Forest Sector's resilience and growth.