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<p>Ethnomedicinal plants (EMP) for human and livestock use in Northeast India (NER) are valuable since they are part of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and are available in the ecologically sensitive East Himalayan and Indo-Burma (EHIB) hotspots. It is anticipated that the EMP of EHIB hotspots may be considerably impacted by climate change. Due to scarce existing knowledge, the purpose of the present study is to predict the potential distribution of these valuable plants and identify the effects of climate change on high use EMP of NER, using MaxEnt modeling. All the predictions were of acceptable quality (AUC: 0.700 to 0.847 and CBI: 0.495 to 0.945). The predicted habitat was controlled by three main bioclimatic parameters (bio17, bio4, and bio2). Current suitable area of the studied species, e.g., <i>Allium sativum</i> (AllSat), <i>Asparagus recemosus</i> (AspRec), <i>Azadirachta indica</i> (AzaInd), <i>Cannabis sativa</i> (CanSat), <i>Centella asiatica</i> (CenAsi), <i>Curcuma longa</i> (CurLon), and <i>Drymaria cordata</i> (DryCor) ranged between 69% and 99% against 262,185 km<sup>2</sup> available area which were projected to change in the future. In future scenarios, trends varied across species in terms of vulnerability. The suitable area showed: (i) clear cut net loss in AzaInd and CanSat, (ii) net loss trend in AspRec and CurLon, (iii) net gain trend in AllSat and CentAsi, and (iv) net loss in the near future but net gain in the distant future in DryCor. Projected stable and unstable areas could be used for different management strategies to conserve and exploit the ethnomedicinal plants sustainably and indirectly preserving TEK as well.</p>

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Climate change impact on ethnomedicinal high use plants in East Himalayan and Indo-Burma hotspots, India

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月16日

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  • Kaushalendra Kumar Jha,
  • Radhika Jha

摘要

Ethnomedicinal plants (EMP) for human and livestock use in Northeast India (NER) are valuable since they are part of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and are available in the ecologically sensitive East Himalayan and Indo-Burma (EHIB) hotspots. It is anticipated that the EMP of EHIB hotspots may be considerably impacted by climate change. Due to scarce existing knowledge, the purpose of the present study is to predict the potential distribution of these valuable plants and identify the effects of climate change on high use EMP of NER, using MaxEnt modeling. All the predictions were of acceptable quality (AUC: 0.700 to 0.847 and CBI: 0.495 to 0.945). The predicted habitat was controlled by three main bioclimatic parameters (bio17, bio4, and bio2). Current suitable area of the studied species, e.g., Allium sativum (AllSat), Asparagus recemosus (AspRec), Azadirachta indica (AzaInd), Cannabis sativa (CanSat), Centella asiatica (CenAsi), Curcuma longa (CurLon), and Drymaria cordata (DryCor) ranged between 69% and 99% against 262,185 km2 available area which were projected to change in the future. In future scenarios, trends varied across species in terms of vulnerability. The suitable area showed: (i) clear cut net loss in AzaInd and CanSat, (ii) net loss trend in AspRec and CurLon, (iii) net gain trend in AllSat and CentAsi, and (iv) net loss in the near future but net gain in the distant future in DryCor. Projected stable and unstable areas could be used for different management strategies to conserve and exploit the ethnomedicinal plants sustainably and indirectly preserving TEK as well.