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<p>This study develops a 47-prefecture computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Japan that incorporates endogenous capital utilization rates. The model is designed to estimate the short-term economic impact of large-scale natural disasters, focusing on inter-prefectural industrial linkages. Its predictive performance is assessed by replicating the economic consequences of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The results demonstrate that the model effectively captures producers’ adaptive behavior through adjustments in capital utilization rates in response to economic conditions. In regions that are not directly affected by the disaster, for goods that are readily substitutable across regions, such adjustments tend to increase output by utilizing excess production capacity. Conversely, for goods that are difficult to substitute, the same adjustments tend to reduce output because of supply chain disruptions. The findings suggest that, under finer regional classification, endogenous capital utilization provides a more informative representation of localized production changes in short-run disaster CGE analysis. The contribution of this study is to show that endogenous capital utilization rate and fine spatial disaggregation are complementary in short-run disaster CGE analysis. Their combination reveals localized production increases and decreases that are obscured in coarser regional models, allowing a more detailed interpretation of the consequences of large-scale disasters.</p>

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Economic losses and gains from natural disasters: a 47-prefecture interregional CGE model incorporating endogenous capacity utilization rates

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月3日

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  • Masato Yamazaki,
  • Satoshi Shimizu,
  • Osamu Ide,
  • Yoshio Kajitani,
  • Hirokazu Tatano

摘要

This study develops a 47-prefecture computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Japan that incorporates endogenous capital utilization rates. The model is designed to estimate the short-term economic impact of large-scale natural disasters, focusing on inter-prefectural industrial linkages. Its predictive performance is assessed by replicating the economic consequences of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The results demonstrate that the model effectively captures producers’ adaptive behavior through adjustments in capital utilization rates in response to economic conditions. In regions that are not directly affected by the disaster, for goods that are readily substitutable across regions, such adjustments tend to increase output by utilizing excess production capacity. Conversely, for goods that are difficult to substitute, the same adjustments tend to reduce output because of supply chain disruptions. The findings suggest that, under finer regional classification, endogenous capital utilization provides a more informative representation of localized production changes in short-run disaster CGE analysis. The contribution of this study is to show that endogenous capital utilization rate and fine spatial disaggregation are complementary in short-run disaster CGE analysis. Their combination reveals localized production increases and decreases that are obscured in coarser regional models, allowing a more detailed interpretation of the consequences of large-scale disasters.