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<p>In recent years, Japan has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe flood disasters, driven by urban development and climate change. This study examines the relationships among flood risk, population trends, and land-use policies in Gifu, Ogaki, and Seki cities in Gifu Prefecture using a GIS-based time-series analysis from 1975 to 2015. By integrating census mesh population, inundation-depth classes from official flood hazard maps, and Location Optimization Plan guidance categories, this study shows that exposure does not necessarily decline with demographic change. Under the extreme flood scenario (L2), exposure remains persistently high in Gifu and Ogaki: the exposure rate for inundation depth ≥ 0.5&#xa0;m remains around 90% across the study period, and the exposure rate for ≥ 3&#xa0;m increases again in later decades, reaching ~ 60% by 2015. In Seki, citywide exposure rates are lower, yet localized deep-inundation exposure persists (approximately 900 people exposed to &gt; 10&#xa0;m under L2), indicating that aggregate indicators can mask concentrated high-risk hotspots. Flood damage potential further suggests persistent exposure-depth concentration within residential guidance areas and increasing potential outside guidance areas. These findings highlight the need to explicitly integrate hazard severity into land-use guidance and development control to reduce long-term exposure in flood-prone cities, and offer implications for planning in other regions facing similar flood-risk and land-use challenges.</p>

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Time Series Analysis of Land Use Policies and Population Exposure to Flood Risk Using Geographic Information System (GIS) Overlay: A Case Study of Gifu, Japan

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月1日

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  • Diva Syandriaji,
  • Akiyoshi Takagi

摘要

In recent years, Japan has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe flood disasters, driven by urban development and climate change. This study examines the relationships among flood risk, population trends, and land-use policies in Gifu, Ogaki, and Seki cities in Gifu Prefecture using a GIS-based time-series analysis from 1975 to 2015. By integrating census mesh population, inundation-depth classes from official flood hazard maps, and Location Optimization Plan guidance categories, this study shows that exposure does not necessarily decline with demographic change. Under the extreme flood scenario (L2), exposure remains persistently high in Gifu and Ogaki: the exposure rate for inundation depth ≥ 0.5 m remains around 90% across the study period, and the exposure rate for ≥ 3 m increases again in later decades, reaching ~ 60% by 2015. In Seki, citywide exposure rates are lower, yet localized deep-inundation exposure persists (approximately 900 people exposed to > 10 m under L2), indicating that aggregate indicators can mask concentrated high-risk hotspots. Flood damage potential further suggests persistent exposure-depth concentration within residential guidance areas and increasing potential outside guidance areas. These findings highlight the need to explicitly integrate hazard severity into land-use guidance and development control to reduce long-term exposure in flood-prone cities, and offer implications for planning in other regions facing similar flood-risk and land-use challenges.