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<p>The western conifer seed bug (<i>Leptoglossus occidentalis</i>) has recently expanded across East Asia, raising concerns regarding its potential impact on cone production and conifer-associated biodiversity. This study aimed to identify suitable habitats and evaluate invasion trajectories under realistic host constraints to support early detection and management. We developed a MaxEnt model using occurrence records and selected environmental variables, restricted predictions by conifer abundance to reflect host availability, and linked suitability to colonization probabilities. These outputs were incorporated into a cellular automaton framework that accounted for local flight dispersal and multiple levels of traffic-mediated long-distance dispersal over a 20-year period. The model identified high suitability across conifer-dominated regions of eastern China, Japan, Korea, and parts of Russia. Simulations indicated that, without long-distance dispersal, spread remained limited and fragmented, whereas even very low probabilities of human-assisted movement produced rapid, discontinuous expansion, and higher probabilities led to a much broader occupation of suitable habitats. These findings suggest that the species poses a substantial risk of establishing across major conifer regions in East Asia, emphasizing the need for proactive monitoring at transportation hubs and targeted protection of biodiversity-relevant conifer forests.</p>

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Prediction of suitable habitat and spread of Leptoglossus occidentalis in East Asia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月6日

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  • Lexing Miao,
  • Canwei Xia

摘要

The western conifer seed bug (Leptoglossus occidentalis) has recently expanded across East Asia, raising concerns regarding its potential impact on cone production and conifer-associated biodiversity. This study aimed to identify suitable habitats and evaluate invasion trajectories under realistic host constraints to support early detection and management. We developed a MaxEnt model using occurrence records and selected environmental variables, restricted predictions by conifer abundance to reflect host availability, and linked suitability to colonization probabilities. These outputs were incorporated into a cellular automaton framework that accounted for local flight dispersal and multiple levels of traffic-mediated long-distance dispersal over a 20-year period. The model identified high suitability across conifer-dominated regions of eastern China, Japan, Korea, and parts of Russia. Simulations indicated that, without long-distance dispersal, spread remained limited and fragmented, whereas even very low probabilities of human-assisted movement produced rapid, discontinuous expansion, and higher probabilities led to a much broader occupation of suitable habitats. These findings suggest that the species poses a substantial risk of establishing across major conifer regions in East Asia, emphasizing the need for proactive monitoring at transportation hubs and targeted protection of biodiversity-relevant conifer forests.