<p>Extreme rainfall events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climatic variability and climate change, posing significant risks to infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities. This study assessed extreme rainfall risk areas across eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). Eight environmental and anthropogenic factors, rainfall intensity, wind speed, slope, land use/land cover, soil drainage, soil bulk density, elevation, and building footprint density, were integrated using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-weighted overlay approach in ArcGIS Pro to generate a spatial final risk map. The results reveal that extreme rainfall risk is unevenly distributed across the municipality, with high-risk areas concentrated within densely urbanised coastal and peri-urban zones, including parts of Durban Central, KwaMashu, and Ntuzuma. These areas are characterised by extensive impervious surfaces, constrained drainage systems, low-lying topography, and poorly drained soils, which collectively increase runoff generation and flood susceptibility. Conversely, the western and northern peripheries exhibit lower risk due to higher elevations, greater vegetation cover, and more permeable landscapes. The spatial patterns identified in the risk map were further supported by Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis and suburb-level risk rankings, demonstrating strong spatial consistency across analytical outputs. The findings highlight the importance of integrating climatic, environmental, and urban exposure factors in spatial risk assessments and provide a practical decision-support tool for disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, land-use planning, and infrastructure management in eThekwini Municipality.</p>

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Modelling extreme rainfall risk areas using a GIS-based multi-criteria approach in eThekwini municipality, South Africa

  • Simangaliso Mnyandu,
  • Silas Njoya Ngetar,
  • Ntombifuthi Nzimande

摘要

Extreme rainfall events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climatic variability and climate change, posing significant risks to infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities. This study assessed extreme rainfall risk areas across eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). Eight environmental and anthropogenic factors, rainfall intensity, wind speed, slope, land use/land cover, soil drainage, soil bulk density, elevation, and building footprint density, were integrated using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-weighted overlay approach in ArcGIS Pro to generate a spatial final risk map. The results reveal that extreme rainfall risk is unevenly distributed across the municipality, with high-risk areas concentrated within densely urbanised coastal and peri-urban zones, including parts of Durban Central, KwaMashu, and Ntuzuma. These areas are characterised by extensive impervious surfaces, constrained drainage systems, low-lying topography, and poorly drained soils, which collectively increase runoff generation and flood susceptibility. Conversely, the western and northern peripheries exhibit lower risk due to higher elevations, greater vegetation cover, and more permeable landscapes. The spatial patterns identified in the risk map were further supported by Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis and suburb-level risk rankings, demonstrating strong spatial consistency across analytical outputs. The findings highlight the importance of integrating climatic, environmental, and urban exposure factors in spatial risk assessments and provide a practical decision-support tool for disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, land-use planning, and infrastructure management in eThekwini Municipality.