<p>The radiative properties and atmospheric dynamics of the Earth’s surface are altered by the presence of dust aerosols. This study focuses on the unprecedented dust outbreak of March 2010 over West Africa, characterised by extensive plumes that affected southern coastal cities. Contrary to established climatology, this event occurred during the wet season, thereby challenging previous expectations. The study employed ground-based observations, satellite imagery, and atmospheric simulations to examine the spatial extent, transport pathways, and interactions of the dust outbreak with key climatic variables. The research problem addresses the challenges of dust-induced reductions in horizontal visibility affecting the aviation industry and the associated economic losses. According to ERA-Interim analyses, the spatial distribution results of this dust outbreak were extracted from previous studies (synthetic). However, there remains a lack of clarity regarding the impact of dust on climatic parameters. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets alongside COSMO-MUSCAT simulated data from 16 to 31 March 2010 over West Africa, the results showed that ERA-Interim reanalysed temperature values more closely matched ground-based observations than those produced by the COSMO-MUSCAT coupling model. The lower root mean square error (RMSE) of ERA-Interim outputs relative to COSMO-MUSCAT indicates that the former aligns more closely with observed data, which is expected given that it is a reanalysis dataset. Nevertheless, this research confirms that the COSMO-MUSCAT coupling model can effectively simulate meteorological and chemical atmospheric conditions over West Africa, marking the model’s inaugural application in the region. These findings contribute to the development of improved forecasting, early warning systems, and mitigation strategies, which are crucial for safeguarding vulnerable populations and ecosystems from potential future dust outbreak events.</p>

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Comparative analyses of ERA-Interim and COSMO-MUSCAT simulated outputs of March 2010 dust outbreak over West Africa and its impact on climatic parameters

  • Michael C. Ochei

摘要

The radiative properties and atmospheric dynamics of the Earth’s surface are altered by the presence of dust aerosols. This study focuses on the unprecedented dust outbreak of March 2010 over West Africa, characterised by extensive plumes that affected southern coastal cities. Contrary to established climatology, this event occurred during the wet season, thereby challenging previous expectations. The study employed ground-based observations, satellite imagery, and atmospheric simulations to examine the spatial extent, transport pathways, and interactions of the dust outbreak with key climatic variables. The research problem addresses the challenges of dust-induced reductions in horizontal visibility affecting the aviation industry and the associated economic losses. According to ERA-Interim analyses, the spatial distribution results of this dust outbreak were extracted from previous studies (synthetic). However, there remains a lack of clarity regarding the impact of dust on climatic parameters. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets alongside COSMO-MUSCAT simulated data from 16 to 31 March 2010 over West Africa, the results showed that ERA-Interim reanalysed temperature values more closely matched ground-based observations than those produced by the COSMO-MUSCAT coupling model. The lower root mean square error (RMSE) of ERA-Interim outputs relative to COSMO-MUSCAT indicates that the former aligns more closely with observed data, which is expected given that it is a reanalysis dataset. Nevertheless, this research confirms that the COSMO-MUSCAT coupling model can effectively simulate meteorological and chemical atmospheric conditions over West Africa, marking the model’s inaugural application in the region. These findings contribute to the development of improved forecasting, early warning systems, and mitigation strategies, which are crucial for safeguarding vulnerable populations and ecosystems from potential future dust outbreak events.