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<p>This study analyzes the variability and trends of precipitation (P), air temperature, and reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in Ethiopia’s Lake Tana sub-basin from 1980 to 2023, evaluating their impacts on water resources, agriculture, and forestry. As a vital ecological and socio-economic area in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, the sub-basin faces growing climate-related risks. Using monthly climate data from five sources (MSWX-Past, MERRA-2, ERA-5, CRUTS4.06, and TerraClimate), the study assessed spatiotemporal variability and trends. ET₀ was estimated using the FAO56 Penman–Monteith method, and statistical tools such as linear regression, coefficient of variation, and standardized rainfall anomaly were applied. Results show significant increases in annual and Kiremt (June–September) rainfall, while Belg (February–May) and Bega (October–January) experienced slight, non-significant declines. Air temperatures rose significantly, peaking in March, while ET₀ was highest in the sub-basin’s north and during the Belg season. Rainfall variability was low during Kiremt but higher during Belg and Bega. The climatic water balance also showed rising seasonal and annual trends. These changes present challenges for sustainable resource management. Strengthening climate monitoring, integrated water management, and climate-resilient practices is essential to support sustainable development in the Lake Tana sub-basin.</p>

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Rainfall, air temperature, and reference evapotranspiration variability and trend and their implication for agroforestry development in the Lake Tana sub-basin of Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月10日

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  • Antensay Mekoya,
  • Abebe Tesfaye,
  • Daniel Asfaw Bekele

摘要

This study analyzes the variability and trends of precipitation (P), air temperature, and reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in Ethiopia’s Lake Tana sub-basin from 1980 to 2023, evaluating their impacts on water resources, agriculture, and forestry. As a vital ecological and socio-economic area in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, the sub-basin faces growing climate-related risks. Using monthly climate data from five sources (MSWX-Past, MERRA-2, ERA-5, CRUTS4.06, and TerraClimate), the study assessed spatiotemporal variability and trends. ET₀ was estimated using the FAO56 Penman–Monteith method, and statistical tools such as linear regression, coefficient of variation, and standardized rainfall anomaly were applied. Results show significant increases in annual and Kiremt (June–September) rainfall, while Belg (February–May) and Bega (October–January) experienced slight, non-significant declines. Air temperatures rose significantly, peaking in March, while ET₀ was highest in the sub-basin’s north and during the Belg season. Rainfall variability was low during Kiremt but higher during Belg and Bega. The climatic water balance also showed rising seasonal and annual trends. These changes present challenges for sustainable resource management. Strengthening climate monitoring, integrated water management, and climate-resilient practices is essential to support sustainable development in the Lake Tana sub-basin.