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<p>Ladakh, situated in the trans-Himalayan zone of northern India, faces increasing exposure to a range of climate-induced hazards due to its fragile ecosystem, complex terrain, and changing climate patterns. This study presents an integrated geospatial approach to multi-hazard assessment, focusing on floods, landslides, snow avalanches, and droughts. Using long-term average data (1994–2024), thematic layers were developed based on key environmental and climatic variables, including elevation, slope, land surface temperature (LST), NDVI, NDWI, NDSI, rainfall, soil moisture, soil texture, and land use/land cover (LULC). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to derive hazard susceptibility maps. The resulting maps show that flood susceptibility reaches moderate-to-high levels over about 64% of the area, landslides over nearly 85%, snow avalanches over roughly 80%, and drought over more than 90% of the region, delineating extensive belts along major valleys, road corridors and cold-desert rangelands. Validation using a confusion-matrix approach yields overall accuracies of 75% for floods, 80% for landslides, 88% for snow avalanches and 90% for drought, with kappa coefficients of 0.59, 0.66, 0.79 and 0.86 respectively, indicating substantial agreement and suitability for regional-scale applications. The results highlight the compounded vulnerability of ecologically and economically sensitive zones, with direct implications for agriculture, infrastructure and human settlements, and provide a scientific basis for targeted disaster-mitigation and climate-resilient development planning under increasing climatic extremes.</p>

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Spatio-temporal analysis of climate-induced multi-hazards in Ladakh using geospatial techniques

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月4日

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  • Pooja Chauhan,
  • Mamata Ngangom

摘要

Ladakh, situated in the trans-Himalayan zone of northern India, faces increasing exposure to a range of climate-induced hazards due to its fragile ecosystem, complex terrain, and changing climate patterns. This study presents an integrated geospatial approach to multi-hazard assessment, focusing on floods, landslides, snow avalanches, and droughts. Using long-term average data (1994–2024), thematic layers were developed based on key environmental and climatic variables, including elevation, slope, land surface temperature (LST), NDVI, NDWI, NDSI, rainfall, soil moisture, soil texture, and land use/land cover (LULC). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to derive hazard susceptibility maps. The resulting maps show that flood susceptibility reaches moderate-to-high levels over about 64% of the area, landslides over nearly 85%, snow avalanches over roughly 80%, and drought over more than 90% of the region, delineating extensive belts along major valleys, road corridors and cold-desert rangelands. Validation using a confusion-matrix approach yields overall accuracies of 75% for floods, 80% for landslides, 88% for snow avalanches and 90% for drought, with kappa coefficients of 0.59, 0.66, 0.79 and 0.86 respectively, indicating substantial agreement and suitability for regional-scale applications. The results highlight the compounded vulnerability of ecologically and economically sensitive zones, with direct implications for agriculture, infrastructure and human settlements, and provide a scientific basis for targeted disaster-mitigation and climate-resilient development planning under increasing climatic extremes.