Abstract Bhutan’s national crime trend declined by 5% from 2, 614 in 2023 to 2,476 incidents in 2024. However, the Crime Severity Index (CSI) rose to 106 compared with its base year’s CSI (2020 = 100), with arrests related to narcotic drugs and substance abuse dominating the police actions. Younger cohorts reported greater concern about drug-related crime than older population, and women expressed slightly lower safety perceptions than men. This highlights the relevance of drug crime policy in Gelephu Thromde as it transitions to Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), a model city guided by the principles of Gross National Happiness (GNH). Objective This study aims to: (i) Quantify safety perception and identify the types of perceived dominant crime among adult residents. (ii) Assess residents’ perceptions on the environmental risk factors in Gelephu Thromde,with analysis on how it will inform the mindfulness-city planning as it transitions to GMC. Study methods This study employed a cross-sectional survey of a stratified random sample of N=387 residents (valid n=386) using a 10-item fixed-response questionnaire. Participants aged 18 years or older were included in the assessment. Key proportions were calculated with Wilson 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs). Further, subgroup analyses were conducted by gender and age group to explore differences in safety perceptions and concern about drug-related crime. However, this study relies on self-reported survey responses. Therefore, all findings are interpreted as perceptions identified by the residents and their reported experiences rather than verified determinants of crime. Data analysis The collected data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics, including frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations, were employed to summarise the demographic profile of the respondents and their general safety perceptions. To strengthen the inferential design of the study, specific statistical tests were utilized to evaluate differences in proportions and to determine their practical significance. A one-sample proportion z-test was applied to assess the prevalence of perceived dominant crimes. Additionally, a two-sample proportion z-test was used to determine the statistical significance of differences in perceived environmental risk factors (e.g., lack of surveillance versus poor lighting). To ensure consistent statistical interpretation beyond mere p-values, Cohen’s h was calculated for all significant z-tests to quantify the effect size. The effect sizes were interpreted using standard thresholds (small = 0.20, medium = 0.50, large = 0.80) to provide a clear and practical understanding of the magnitude of differences in safety perceptions among the residents of Gelephu Thromde. However, inferential statistics were used only to compare differences in reported perceptions between categories and subgroups. They were not used to establish actual environmental determinants or causal risk mechanisms. Results The mean safety perception score was 8.33/10 (95% CI [8.17, 8.49]). By gender, males reported slightly higher safety perceptions than females (8.44, 8.19). Among the five broad categories of offending, 228 of 386 participants (59.1%; 95% CI [54.1%, 63.9%]) identified drug-related crime as the most common crime in Gelephu Thromde. The international border area was reported as the most unsafe location (237/386; 61.4%, 95% CI [56.5%, 66.1%]), and lack of surveillance (56.7%) was perceived riskier than poor lighting (23.6%). Non-victimization was reported by 76.4% of respondents (95% CI [71.9%, 80.4%]), while younger participants reported greater concerns about drug-related crime than the oldest age group (i.e. 64.4% vs. 43.2%, a 21.2%-point gap). Regarding the relationship between gender and safety perception, males reported slightly higher mean safety than females (8.44 vs. 8.19) and a greater proportion of 9/10-ratings on the Likert scale (48.7% vs. 39.5%). Overall, 84.6% of males and 77.4% of females rated between 8 and 10, with both genders sharing the median score of 9/10. Variability in safety perception was higher among females (SD = 1.74) than males (SD = 1.49). In terms of age and concerns about drug-related issues, younger participants had higher concerns on drug issues than the oldest group (18–30: 64.4%; ≥60: 43.2%) reflecting a 21.2%-point gap between the youngest and oldest age group. Interpretation The findings reflect the national pattern of overall decline in crime alongside higher CSI (Crime Severity Index). They also reflect respondents’ perception of enforcement as being strongly focussed on drug-related offences by legal actors such as police. Within the context of a mindfulness city, a comprehensive safety strategy should incorporate Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED-plus) methods. Specifically, this strategy would combine enhanced surveillance and protective features with improved lighting alongside strengthened procedural justice and a youth-oriented substance abuse prevention program. Inter-agency collaboration should also be sensitive to the challenges posed by the international border context. These combined behavioural and environmental strategies are central to operationalising Gelephu’s mindfulness ethos, which seeks to harmonize urban growth with reduced harm and enhanced subjective safety. Drug-related crime was identified by 228 of 386 respondents (59.1%, 95% CI: 54.1–63.9), which was significantly higher than the 50% reference value (z = 3.56, Cohen’s h = 0.18). Meaning, the respondents were somewhat more likely than not to identify drug-related crime as the dominant crime, but the small effect size indicates that this margin was modest rather than strong. Lack of surveillance was selected more often than poor lighting as the top environmental risk factor (56.7% vs. 23.6%; z = 9.99, Cohen’s h = 0.69). This means, residents clearly viewed surveillance and guardianship as a much more important safety concern than lighting alone, and the large effect size shows that this was a substantively meaningful difference. The border area was perceived as more unsafe than other locations, especially nightclubs, and the effect size for the border-vs-nightclubs comparison was large (Cohen’s h = 0.59). In relation to the research question, this suggests that perceived risk in Gelephu Thromde is concentrated in specific locations rather than evenly distributed across the city, which supports a place-based interpretation of safety concerns. This pattern is consistent with Social Disorganization Theory because it suggests that perceived disorder and risk cluster in areas shaped by mobility, border exposure, and weaker informal controls.”

A quantitative study of public safety perceptions, perceived crime variation, and perceived environmental risk factors in Gelephu Thromde, Bhutan

期刊论文
出版模式：

开放获取
发表日期：

2026年8月5日

查看全文

Janchu Dorji

摘要

Abstract

Bhutan’s national crime trend declined by 5% from 2, 614 in 2023 to 2,476 incidents in 2024. However, the Crime Severity Index (CSI) rose to 106 compared with its base year’s CSI (2020 = 100), with arrests related to narcotic drugs and substance abuse dominating the police actions. Younger cohorts reported greater concern about drug-related crime than older population, and women expressed slightly lower safety perceptions than men. This highlights the relevance of drug crime policy in Gelephu Thromde as it transitions to Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), a model city guided by the principles of Gross National Happiness (GNH).

Objective

This study aims to: (i) Quantify safety perception and identify the types of perceived dominant crime among adult residents. (ii) Assess residents’ perceptions on the environmental risk factors in Gelephu Thromde,with analysis on how it will inform the mindfulness-city planning as it transitions to GMC.

Study methods

This study employed a cross-sectional survey of a stratified random sample of N=387 residents (valid n=386) using a 10-item fixed-response questionnaire. Participants aged 18 years or older were included in the assessment. Key proportions were calculated with Wilson 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs). Further, subgroup analyses were conducted by gender and age group to explore differences in safety perceptions and concern about drug-related crime. However, this study relies on self-reported survey responses. Therefore, all findings are interpreted as perceptions identified by the residents and their reported experiences rather than verified determinants of crime.

Data analysis

The collected data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics, including frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations, were employed to summarise the demographic profile of the respondents and their general safety perceptions. To strengthen the inferential design of the study, specific statistical tests were utilized to evaluate differences in proportions and to determine their practical significance. A one-sample proportion z-test was applied to assess the prevalence of perceived dominant crimes. Additionally, a two-sample proportion z-test was used to determine the statistical significance of differences in perceived environmental risk factors (e.g., lack of surveillance versus poor lighting). To ensure consistent statistical interpretation beyond mere p-values, Cohen’s h was calculated for all significant z-tests to quantify the effect size. The effect sizes were interpreted using standard thresholds (small = 0.20, medium = 0.50, large = 0.80) to provide a clear and practical understanding of the magnitude of differences in safety perceptions among the residents of Gelephu Thromde. However, inferential statistics were used only to compare differences in reported perceptions between categories and subgroups. They were not used to establish actual environmental determinants or causal risk mechanisms.

Results

The mean safety perception score was 8.33/10 (95% CI [8.17, 8.49]). By gender, males reported slightly higher safety perceptions than females (8.44, 8.19). Among the five broad categories of offending, 228 of 386 participants (59.1%; 95% CI [54.1%, 63.9%]) identified drug-related crime as the most common crime in Gelephu Thromde. The international border area was reported as the most unsafe location (237/386; 61.4%, 95% CI [56.5%, 66.1%]), and lack of surveillance (56.7%) was perceived riskier than poor lighting (23.6%). Non-victimization was reported by 76.4% of respondents (95% CI [71.9%, 80.4%]), while younger participants reported greater concerns about drug-related crime than the oldest age group (i.e. 64.4% vs. 43.2%, a 21.2%-point gap). Regarding the relationship between gender and safety perception, males reported slightly higher mean safety than females (8.44 vs. 8.19) and a greater proportion of 9/10-ratings on the Likert scale (48.7% vs. 39.5%). Overall, 84.6% of males and 77.4% of females rated between 8 and 10, with both genders sharing the median score of 9/10. Variability in safety perception was higher among females (SD = 1.74) than males (SD = 1.49). In terms of age and concerns about drug-related issues, younger participants had higher concerns on drug issues than the oldest group (18–30: 64.4%; ≥60: 43.2%) reflecting a 21.2%-point gap between the youngest and oldest age group.

Interpretation

The findings reflect the national pattern of overall decline in crime alongside higher CSI (Crime Severity Index). They also reflect respondents’ perception of enforcement as being strongly focussed on drug-related offences by legal actors such as police. Within the context of a mindfulness city, a comprehensive safety strategy should incorporate Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED-plus) methods. Specifically, this strategy would combine enhanced surveillance and protective features with improved lighting alongside strengthened procedural justice and a youth-oriented substance abuse prevention program. Inter-agency collaboration should also be sensitive to the challenges posed by the international border context. These combined behavioural and environmental strategies are central to operationalising Gelephu’s mindfulness ethos, which seeks to harmonize urban growth with reduced harm and enhanced subjective safety. Drug-related crime was identified by 228 of 386 respondents (59.1%, 95% CI: 54.1–63.9), which was significantly higher than the 50% reference value (z = 3.56, Cohen’s h = 0.18). Meaning, the respondents were somewhat more likely than not to identify drug-related crime as the dominant crime, but the small effect size indicates that this margin was modest rather than strong. Lack of surveillance was selected more often than poor lighting as the top environmental risk factor (56.7% vs. 23.6%; z = 9.99, Cohen’s h = 0.69). This means, residents clearly viewed surveillance and guardianship as a much more important safety concern than lighting alone, and the large effect size shows that this was a substantively meaningful difference. The border area was perceived as more unsafe than other locations, especially nightclubs, and the effect size for the border-vs-nightclubs comparison was large (Cohen’s h = 0.59). In relation to the research question, this suggests that perceived risk in Gelephu Thromde is concentrated in specific locations rather than evenly distributed across the city, which supports a place-based interpretation of safety concerns. This pattern is consistent with Social Disorganization Theory because it suggests that perceived disorder and risk cluster in areas shaped by mobility, border exposure, and weaker informal controls.”