Banking performance, financial stability, economic development, and carbon emissions in BRICS+ using PVAR–GMM analysis
摘要
This study investigates reduced-form dynamic linkages among banking performance, financial stability, economic development, financial development, and carbon emissions across a nine-country BRICS+ analytical sample during 2000–2021. Using a Panel Vector Autoregression-Generalized Method of Moments (PVAR-GMM) framework, the study examines how micro-banking indicators and macro-structural environmental conditions predict one another over time. The findings indicate a path-dependent system. Credit expansion initially predicts higher emissions, while its second-lag response is negative; this sign reversal is interpreted as a short- to medium-run adjustment pattern. Bank stability and bank income structure are also dynamically linked to emissions, but the results are treated as predictive associations supported by impulse response function analysis. Environmental deterioration is associated with subsequent pressure on non-interest income, suggesting that climate-related transition and physical risks may affect banking performance. Overall, the evidence implies that green financial transition in BRICS+ economies depends not only on expanding credit but also on improving credit allocation, risk pricing, banking resilience, and climate-related supervisory capacity.