Population migration shaped regional transfers and temporal changes in dietary carbon emissions in China from 2010 to 2020
摘要
China’s rapid urbanization and large-scale internal migration have important implications for dietary patterns and carbon emissions. Focusing on the consumption-side dietary carbon footprint rather than the entire food-system supply chain, this study accounts for migration-associated changes in residential food-consumption carbon emissions (RFCCEs) in China for the two census years 2010 and 2020. We integrate provincial urban–rural food consumption data, life-cycle carbon-footprint coefficients for 14 food categories, and 31 × 31 interprovincial migration matrices disaggregated into four migration types. Under a destination-diet acculturation scenario, net migration-associated RFCCEs increased from 10.97 Mt CO₂e yr−1in 2010 to 13.43 Mt CO₂e yr−1in 2020. Rural-to-urban migration accounted for the largest share of this net change (89% in 2010 and 85% in 2020), largely because many flows moved from rural origins with lower dietary carbon footprints to urban destinations with higher consumption of animal-based foods. Major net transfer-in provinces included Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, whereas central and western provinces were the main net transfer-out regions. The study underscores the importance of migration-aware climate strategies and sustainable dietary policies in urban centers, offering insights for emission governance in rapidly urbanizing economies.