Spatiotemporal and sectoral dynamics of air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions in Nigeria (1970–2023)
摘要
This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Nigeria from 1970 to 2023 using high-resolution data from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6.0). Despite Nigeria’s rapid urbanization, population growth, and rising energy demand, long-term integrated assessments that jointly examine air pollutants and greenhouse gases across sectors and regions remain limited, constraining evidence-based air-quality management and climate policy formulation. The emissions of PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, NOₓ, SO₂, CO, NMVOCs, and major GHGs (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and F-gases) were analysed using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Pearson correlation, hierarchical clustering, and spatial aggregation across economic sectors and Nigeria’s geopolitical zones. The results show a sustained increase in national emissions across all pollutant categories, with PM₂.₅ emissions from the building sector rising from approximately 0.44 million t in 1970 to 1.58 million t in 2022, while PM₁₀ emissions increased from 0.86 million t to over 3.12 million t over the same period. Total GHG emissions peaked at about 326 million t CO₂e in 2021, driven primarily by the energy and fuel exploitation sectors. Agriculture remained the dominant source of CH₄ and N₂O emissions, with CH₄ increasing from about 15.3 million t in 1970 to nearly 59.6 million t in 2023. Spatial analysis reveals relatively higher emission intensities in southern and south‑western zones, particularly in highly urbanized and industrialized areas, while northern zones exhibit elevated NH₃ and CH₄ emissions linked to agricultural expansion. Although health outcomes were not directly modelled, the emission trajectories are consistent with established links between air pollution, climate risks, and environmental degradation. The findings support evidence-based air-quality management and climate mitigation policies aligned with the Paris Agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals, and Africa’s Agenda 2063.
Graphical Abstract